ASML Q4 2025 earnings report
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ASML reported that orders exceeded expectations; Its 2026 sales forecast was also ahead of forecasts as demand for artificial intelligence continues to support the Dutch chip giant’s business.
Bookings, one of the metrics most closely followed by investors, totaled 13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Visible Alpha cited by Reuters; This was above analysts’ expectations of 6.32 billion euros. This was a record quarter for orders, according to Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer.
ASML also announced a 12 billion euro share buyback plan to be carried out by December 31, 2028.
The company said it expects net sales this quarter to be between 8.2 billion and 8.9 billion euros, and total sales for 2026 to be between 34 billion euros and 39 billion euros. The midpoint is above analysts’ expectations of 35.1 billion.
ASML has previously said it does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025. ASML’s forecast would represent growth and appears to mark an improvement on its previous comment about 2026.
Here’s how ASML performed relative to LSEG consensus estimates for the fourth quarter:
- Net sales: 9.7 billion euros ($11.6 billion), versus 9.6 billion euros expected
- Net profit: 2.84 billion euros compared to 3.01 billion euros expected
Artificial intelligence winds
ASML, which produces the tools necessary to produce the most advanced chips in the world, is experiencing various negativities due to the explosion in artificial intelligence infrastructure. It has increased its shares by almost 30% this year alone.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Inc. (TSMC) this month reported another record jump in fourth-quarter profit, reinforcing the narrative that demand for artificial intelligence chips and infrastructure will continue. ASML’s customer, TSMC, is the world’s largest chipmaker and produces semiconductors for the following companies: Nvidia with AMD.
Meanwhile, semiconductor memory shortages are also causing an unprecedented rise in component prices, and some in the electronics industry expect the crisis to continue into 2027. Analysts predict that the world’s largest memory manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, will increase chip production capacity in the next year or two, which will mean these companies will buy more ASML machines.
For example, Barclays said in a note this month that it expects SK Hynix to acquire 12 of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines in 2026.
ASML CFO said his clients were “more positive in their assessment of medium-term market perspectives.”
“I think it’s mainly based on the more robust view that they have when it comes to demand for AI, which looks more sustainable from their perspective,” Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview. “This recognition has led some of our customers to actually invest in capacity and accelerate their medium-term capacity expansion plans.”
China in focus
Investors are waiting for any comments on China, a market where ASML is not allowed to ship its most advanced machines due to export restrictions. The Dutch semiconductor giant said last year that it expected sales in China to decrease significantly in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025.
ASML said it expects China revenue to account for 20% of its total sales in 2026. Last year, China accounted for 33% of ASML’s net system sales.
