Assam’s dramatis personae: Himanta, Gaurav, ‘Miyas’ and also development
The April 9 Assembly elections in Assam are expected to be more than a high-voltage battle of two alliances, one led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeking a third consecutive term and the other by the Congress.
The focus of the 126-member Assembly election, the first single phase in Assam since 2001, will be the fierce contest between Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and state Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi.
The countdown to the outcome of their public fight intensified on March 15, when the Election Commission of India fixed April 9 as election day in Assam, along with Kerala and Puducherry. All political parties appreciated this date, five days before Rongali or Bohag Bihu from mid-April.
Election problems in Assam are almost always recurring. These include development, floods and erosion, infrastructure strains, welfare schemes, allegations of corruption and identity politics, fears of State takeover by the ‘Bangladeshi’ or ‘Miya’ people in particular, and the struggle of six communities (Adivasi or “Tea Tribes”, Chutia, Koch-Rajbongshi, Matak, Moran and Tai-Ahom) demanding Scheduled Tribe (ST) status.
‘Miya’ narrative
One of the defining but all-too-familiar narratives likely to shape the upcoming elections is the BJP’s political messaging around ‘Miya’, a derogatory term associated with Muslim communities of Bengali origin in Assam and often accused of being Bangladeshi. The BJP framed issues of land encroachment, demographic change and identity around this narrative, trying to unite indigenous and Assamese-speaking Hindu voters.
The BJP claims to be the only party serious about securing Assam’s future by launching an eviction campaign to free 1.51 lakh bighas of government land from “Bangladeshi” squatters and promising to throw out all the “infiltrators” if given another chance. The anti-Miya rhetoric has become shriller than before, with the Congress and other Opposition parties projected as appeasing Muslims.
The ST issue was further complicated by the proposal to add a new category (ST (Valley)) to the existing ST (Plains) and ST (Hills) to accommodate the six communities. While the six communities agreed that getting ST status is easier said than done, the 14 existing tribes warned against any steps to expand the list and dilute the rights and privileges they enjoy.
The issue is likely to be a double-edged sword for the BJP in at least 30 Assembly constituencies covered by various tribal councils.
New issues include the demand for justice for singer-composer Zubeen Garg, who died in Singapore on September 19, 2025, especially in the heartland of Assam. The Congress-led alliance is cornering the BJP-led government for allegedly protecting Garg’s ‘murderers’.
Sarma vs Gogoi
But the election contest is likely to be known for the almost personal fight between Mr. Sarma and Mr. Gogoi, who are challenging an intense BJP campaign to win the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat in 2024. The latter’s popularity is perceived as a concern for the BJP in eastern Assam, which won the majority of its seats in 2016 and 2021.
The rivalry between the two leaders intensified after the Prime Minister accused Mr Gogoi of maintaining ties with Pakistan and ordered the Special Investigation Team to launch a probe against him.
Change of partner
The BJP is going to the polls with three partners: Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and Rabha Hasong Joutha Mancha. What has changed since 2021 is the replacement of United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) with BPF for 15 seats in Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR).
BPF will contest in 11 of these seats, while BJP will contest in four. UPPL, which withdrew from the NDA on Tuesday, has decided to field candidates against the BJP and BPF in six more constituencies in BTR and beyond, which could affect the NDA’s chances.
The ‘tea tribes’ factor
A popular theory is that elections in Assam are won or lost depending on which party or alliance the two ‘bulk vote banks’ (Muslims and ‘Tea tribes’ or Adivasis) support. Allegedly, the Congress had the support of both groups until the Adivasis started moving towards the BJP in the 2010s.
The BJP has shown that Adivasis, especially in the tea belts of eastern Assam, are important to them by distributing cash handouts and initiating the process of granting them land rights along labor lines in over 800 tea estates.
The BJP and its allies are also banking on the Orunodoi scheme, in which ₹9,000 was given to each of 40 lakh beneficiary families less than a week before the poll schedule was announced. The money included monthly installment of ₹1,250 from January to April and Rongali Bihu “bonus” of ₹4,000.
Dent in congress votes
Congress heads to the polls with 11 fewer allies than in 2021. These are Assam Jatiya Parishad, Communist Party of India (Marxist), CPI (Marxist-Leninist) and All Parties Hill Leaders Conference.
The Congress-led alliance is wary of the damage that the Raijor Dal, led by MLA-turned-activist Akhil Gogoi, could do. Differences over several seats led to the Congress and the Raijor Dal contesting the elections together after months of debate.
Another party that could upset the Congress’s apple basket in Muslim-majority seats is the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal. AIUDF, which is largely seen as having penetrated Congress strongholds in Muslim-majority seats, was the Congress’s partner in 2021.
AIUDF won 16 of the 50 seats bagged by the Congress-led Mahajot (grand alliance) of 16 political parties in 2021. The BJP and its allies won 75 seats that year.
It was published – 17 March 2026 21:53 IST
