The piece of data that could decide next rate decision
Traders, economists and mortgage holders will be locked on the Australian Statistical Office website this week for a data piece that can determine whether the reserve bank reduces interest rates next month.
RBA’s last meeting of the Board of Directors confirmed that the central bank stopped for more signs before the inflation was cut again and stressed the importance of the three -month consumer price index on Wednesday.
AMP Chief economist Shane Oliver believes that an annual result of 2.8 percent or lower for the average measures preferred by RBA will pave the way for another rate at the August 11-12 meeting.
But we can be higher and we can be for another waiting.
Dr Oliver estimates that the average average will be 2.9 percent in March quarter and 2.6 % annually compared to a year close to the midpoint of the 2-3 percent target range of RBA.
“Wait a modest increase in the softness, communication, education and insurance of clothing, health and travel prices, transportation and gasoline prices in clothes, health and travel prices, in a research note.
“However, as RBA points out, some components in the last month CPI proposes an adverse risk for average inflation.”
The market consensus is for a 2.7 percent increase, which will be higher than RBA’s estimation of 2.6 percent. It can be higher than that and the market may cause rethinking certain rates of the August ratio deduction.
“The money market sees the chance of 98 percent of the August rate deduction, which is probably a bit too high,” Dr Oliver said.
“We would put it in 80 percent.”
On Thursday, economists will pass a data festival as they release ABS retail trade, building approval and international trade price figures.
Retail pressure is the last edition of the office before moving to a more comprehensive consumption measure, which is a monthly home expenditure indicator.
“Appropriate, monthly sales appearance, June update is expected to see a percentage percentage of the economists from Westpac – the best monthly result since January 2024,” he said.
However, earnings mainly reflect a splash from soft sales in previous months, because consumers are struggling to gain momentum after the loss of purchase during the increase in pandemic inflation.
Property analysis company Cotality will update the home value index on Friday and the falling interest rates increase the demand for the buyer.
Investors at Wall Street, meanwhile, optimistic. The US will soon reach a trade agreement with the European Union.
The Indexes were highly closed on Friday before the meeting of the European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen with Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.40 percent to end the session with 6,388.64 points. NASDAQ won 0.24 % of 21.108.32 points and the Dow Jones industrial an average increased by 0.47 percent to 44,901.92 points.
Australian stocks fell to 8,360 with a decrease of 5.0 points or 0.05 percent.
The comparison made on Friday decreased to 42.5 points or 8.666.9 at a rate of 0.49 percent, while all ordinarys fell by 45.1 points or 0.5 percent.
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