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Inflation data will be announced at 11.30

According to the Australian Associated Press, the first economic outlook of the year may show a slowdown in inflation, but this may not be enough to prevent the Central Bank from increasing interest rates.

Hopes for further interest rate relief have been dashed by a resurgence of inflation in the second half of 2025; Analysts and bond traders predict the central bank’s next move will be bullish rather than bearish.

Economists’ expectations Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce today that the consumer price index fell from 3.8% to 3.6% in November.

More importantly, NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent It predicts the less volatile adjusted average figure will rise 0.3% for the month or 3.3% annually.

Wednesday’s update will have limited relevance to the RBA, given that it will be replaced by December quarter inflation data ahead of its February board meeting.

But a 0.3% increase in the trimmed average would put the quarterly figure on track for a 0.9% increase, which would be “too hot for comfort” for the RBA, Nugent said.

Given that this would be 15 basis points higher than the RBA’s last forecast, NAB predicts the board will be forced to raise rates in February, with another increase likely in May.

November CPI will rise due to the timing of the expiration of some energy rebates.

But the RBA will be less concerned with such temporary factors and will pay more attention to more permanent items such as new housing costs and market services.

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