How Ozempic, Wegovy could lead to airline fuel savings
Airlines could be a surprise beneficiary of the popularity of weight-loss pills like Wegovy and Mounjaro, which could lower airlines’ fuel costs and increase profits.
Analysts from Wall Street investment bank Jefferies calculated that if weight-loss trends continue, a 10 percent leaner society could produce an average 4 percent increase in earnings per share for major U.S. airlines.
“A thinner society = lower fuel consumption,” wrote stock analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu. Fuel accounts for 20-30 percent of the airline’s cost, which is reflected in the ticket price.
Since 2022, the adult obesity rate in the United States has fallen from nearly 40 percent to 37 percent as GLP-1 appetite and blood sugar-regulating drugs reshape the population.
Noting that passenger weight was out of many people’s control until GLP-1, Kahyaoğlu wrote, “With the drug now available in pill form and obesity rates decreasing, more widespread use may have a greater impact on waistlines.”
Studying American, Delta, United and Southwest airlines, his team calculated that a 10 percent slimmer population in the U.S. would yield a 2 percent weight savings, which could reduce fuel costs by up to 1.5 percent. This will contribute an average of 3.9 percent to the four airlines’ earnings per share.
Aviation company Honeywell estimates that every 450 grams of an aircraft’s weight “including crew, passengers, luggage and the aircraft itself” totals about US$10,000 ($14,436) in annual fuel costs for commercial aircraft.
Sydney-based Peter Harbison, Chairman of GreenerAirlines.com, said when GLP-1 drugs were first introduced there was an expectation that it would lead to an increase in demand as obese customers began to travel.
“Airlines had already taken heavier passenger weight into account years ago,” he said.
“Given many other variables, I think the impact of the drug will be marginal in terms of weight of aircraft in the short to medium term,” Harbison said. “But if you’re getting up to 1 percent of the flight cost, that makes a difference.”
In Australia, only 32 percent of the population was obese in 2022, according to the ABS.
Drug use is also higher in the US; It rose from 5.8 percent in early 2024 to 12.4 percent today.
Only 2 per cent of Australians will use Ozempic by 2025 and similar GLP1 drugsAlmost half of the doses were purchased privately.
Salim Hijazeen, from the Department of Aeronautics at Swinburne University’s School of Engineering, warned that GLP1s may only make a marginal difference.
“In general, airlines try to focus on fuel optimization rather than planning around what the potential health trends of the population are,” he said.
“Something like this is unlikely to significantly impact the weight of the aircraft in terms of passenger weight,” he said.
Jefferies analyst Kahyaoglu calculated his estimate by combining the weight of the 178 passengers on the Boeing 737 Max 8 with the individuals’ pre-Ozempic average weight of 180 pounds (81.6 kg). Taking into account the number and influence of those who liked to take Ozempic, the weight of the same passengers was calculated to be 178 pounds (80.7 kilograms).
The first provided a maximum takeoff weight of 181,200 pounds versus 177,996 pounds; this was a difference of 3204 pounds.
Applying the rule that a 1 percent weight savings equals 0.75 percent fuel efficiency, a 2 percent improvement in aircraft weight is worth about 4 percent in earnings per share, Kahyaoğlu wrote.
Harbison noted that when Ozempic first hit the market, there was speculation that newly slimmed-down people would have the courage to travel more thanks to the use of the drug.
“What this means is that although they have probably lost some weight, they are still above average, so they have probably increased the average. [on planes]” said Harbison.
Qantas declined to comment. Jetstar and Virgin have been contacted for comment.
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