Iran-Israel war escalation to impact India’ s trade with West Asia, say experts
They said the war began to influence India’s exports to Iran and Israel.
The United States attacked three sites in Iran early on Sunday, and Israel has put Tehran into the war aiming to destroy the country’s nuclear program for a long time to weaken the enemy for a long time to weaken the enemy for a long time to accuse Tehran’s Washington of starting a “dangerous war”.
“We are now having a big problem because of this war. India will have a stepped effect on West Asian countries,” Mumbai -based exporter and founding president India, India. He said.
Saraf said that his company left behind shipments to both countries. Technocraft Industries produces drum closing, nylon and plastic plugs, lid lids and clamps.
“This war will have a stepped effect.” Another exporter said that the Indian community’s impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the attack on Yemen-backed transport ships in the Red Sea. For this reason, the shipping lines from India were receiving shipment from a good hope surrounding the African continent. Now, because of the Iran -Israeli War, another key trade route – hormuz Strait – is affected.
“This route will hit the movement of oil tankers. I feel that oil tankers will find new routes, but this will force crude oil prices. Crude oil prices will have effects on inflation because it is the mother of all prices.” He said.
The Think Tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that a wider regional rise can threaten a much larger trade with the wider Western Asian region, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, and that Indian exports are USD 8.6 billion USD and my imports are USD $ 33.1 billion.
“This corridor’s shipping strips, port access or any deduction of financial systems will seriously affect India’s trade flows, inflating load and insurance costs, and bring new supply chain risks for Indian enterprises,” GTRI will seriously inflate the load and insurance costs. ” He said.
India’s exports to Iran, Basmati Rice (US $ 753.2 million), bananas (USD 53.2 million), soy dinner (70.6 million US dollars), Bengal Gram (USD 27.9 million) and TEA (Tea (25.5.5 million US $ 25.5 million) with significant products $ 1.24 billion in the year. has been.
The exports of Israel and India imported US $ 2.1 billion and US $ 1.6 billion in 2024-25 years.
Authorized, ongoing US-Israel’s strikes on Iran and a wider threat of conflict may significantly disrupt this trade.
While the payment channels that are already forced by US sanctions may encounter more congestion, increasing shipping risks in the Gulf may increase insurance costs and delay posts.
“Rice, bananas and tea, such as detrimental exports are particularly vulnerable. A long -term conflict can reduce the demand for Iran and squeeze Indian exporters, especially in the agricultural sector.” He said.
GTRI said that a basic concern was a potential deterioration in the Hormuz Strait, where 60-65 percent of India’s raw imports have passed.
“Any blockade or military increase in this vital maritime corridor will seriously affect India’s energy safety, increase oil prices and trigger inflationary pressures at home.”
India benefited from deep historical, cultural and economic ties with Iran, once a large crude oil supplier, and sees the Iran’s Chabahar harbor as a strategic passage to Afghanistan and Central Asia and provides a significant connection while jumping Pakistan.
Nevertheless, India, the United States, Israel and the Gulf, have strong relations with the Arab states, and now each of them participated in the conflict that emerged directly or indirectly.
Half of India’s crude oil and LNG imports pass through the Hormuz Strait, which Iran threatens to close. This narrow waterway, which is only 21 miles wide at the narrowest point, deals with about one fifth of global oil trade and is indispensable for India, which depends on imports for more than 80 percent of energy needs.
Located between Iran’s North and Oman and the United Arab Emirates in the south, the Hormuz Strait serves as the main road for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and UAE. In particular, many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipment from Qatar passes through the throat.
According to the Delhi -based economic thinking organization, any closure or military disruption in the Hormuz Strait will sharply increase oil prices, shipping costs and insurance premiums, trigger inflation, press the RUPYA, and complicate India’s financial management.
The current conflict, which began with an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, stopped the cargo movement on the Red Sea roads due to the commercial transport attacks of Houthi rebels.
Last year, the situation around the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait, an important shipping route connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, increased due to the attacks of Yemen-based Houthi militants.
Approximately 80 percent of India’s trade with Europe passes through the Red Sea, and important trade with the US is taking this route. Both geographies make up 34 percent of the country’s total exports.
The Red Sea Strait is vital for 30 percent of global container traffic and 12 percent of world trade.
Based on the effect of the tariff war, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said that global trade would make a contract against the previous projection of 2.7 percent in 2025 with 0.2 percent.
India’s general exports grew by 6 percent annually in 2024-25 years. This year is expected to exceed US $ 900 billion.
India’s exports of the two -month rising trend captured, decreased by 2.17 % annually in May due to the decrease in the shipments of oil goods.
