Average IRS tax refund is up 10.2%, based on early filing data
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The average tax refund so far this season is 10.2% higher than it was for about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data. The annual percentage change is below the 14.2% increase reported last week.
As of February 20 average refund amount For individual filers, that figure rose to $3,804 from $3,453 about a year ago, the IRS reported Friday.
According to the IRS statement, the total amount refunded was approximately $109 billion, an increase of 6.9% from 2025. However, total returns processed decreased by 2.4%.
Amid consumer concerns about affordability, the Trump administration has highlighted how Trump’s “big beautiful bill” could affect the size of tax refunds this season.
One Release in late JanuaryThe White House said average tax refunds could increase by “$1,000 or more,” citing several media reports citing research by investment bank Piper Sandler in early October.
Based on changes made by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts, Oxford Economics’ Feb. 26 report predicts tax refunds will increase by about 20% this year, providing more benefits than usual to middle- and upper-income households.
But experts say individual refunds could vary depending on pay cuts in 2025 and what Trump provisions affect their families’ situations.
Average tax refunds generally increase towards the end of February
By law, the IRS cannot issue requested refunds. The refundable portion of the child tax credit, known as the earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit or ACTC, is due Feb. 15.
This means that the agency’s first two members filing season statistics The releases, which reflected data through Feb. 6 and Feb. 13, respectively, did not include millions of refunds made on those loans.
“Toward the end of February, the average refund amount is rapidly increasing and getting bigger,” said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank.
From February 13 to February 20, the average tax refund increased from $2,476 to $3,804. But experts say it’s too early to draw conclusions about average tax refunds this season due to limited tax filing data.
Maximum EITC for 2025 returns Value up to $8,046 For applicants with three or more qualifying children. For 2024 returns average EITC payment According to the IRS it was $2,916. Trump’s tax cuts did not change the 2025 EITC.
Trump’s legislation made the higher child tax credit permanent and increased the maximum tax deduction to $2,200. The refundable portion, the ACTC, will continue to be adjusted for inflation, but Trump’s cuts did not change the amount in 2024. The value of ACTC will rise to $1,700 by 2025.
