Baghdad has no reason to send forces to Iran amid protests, Iraqi scholar tells ‘Post’

According to some media outlets, including Iran International, thousands of Iraqi militiamen have already crossed into Iran to help Tehran suppress the ongoing protests.

“There is no interest or justification for the Iraqi government to send reserve forces to Tehran, nor does Iran need extra reinforcements from Baghdad,” said Sheikh Ghaith Al-Tamimi, one of Iraq’s leading Islamic theologians and founder of the Iraqi Diversity Center. Jerusalem Post.

According to some media outlets, including Iran International, thousands of Iraqi militiamen have already crossed into Iran to help Tehran suppress the ongoing protests. Sheikh Al Tamimi says, “The Iraqi government has no interest or justification for sending reserve forces to Tehran.” He adds that he would not rule out that some Shiite militants with direct links to, financed and trained by Iran “may be gone, but this would be on a voluntary basis and certainly not sanctioned by the Iraqi state.”

Sheikh Al-Tamimi argues that these volunteer missions were “both secondary and marginal” and made no significant contribution. Drawing on a previous incident in which various Shiite groups sent volunteers to support Hezbollah in its war with Israel after October 7, Sheikh Al Tamimi says: “We saw a significant number of militants going to Lebanon to fight alongside Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah was not confident in their military capabilities and they were not offered any key roles, which eventually led them to return to Iraq.” But he continues: “A small number of fighters have certainly gone, but I reiterate that their recruitment will not be approved by the Iraqi government.”

These volunteers will most likely be deployed to minority-populated areas such as Ahvaz, Ahvaz Arabs (a repressed ethnic and linguistic minority in Iran with a strong Sunni Arab identity) or the Kurdish region of Iran.

He continues: “Theoretically, I doubt that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would open its territory to Iraqi militias to carry out their armed missions; this is highly controversial.” He adds: “Let’s not forget that Basij, a paramilitary branch of the Revolutionary Guard, has approximately 8 million members.” Basij permeates many layers of Iranian society. It has cells throughout Iran and is present in every university and government institution, including healthcare, law enforcement, and other social and cultural institutions. Its main role is to ensure domestic security, from enforcing social norms and dress codes to suppressing dissent and protests.

“Add to that the IRGC and various intelligence agencies,” says Al-Tamimi. “I doubt that a brutal police state like Iran would need extra reinforcements from Baghdad.”

Iran is a theocratic and tyrannical regime with “tight control over its people.” “I doubt that the protesters will be able to overthrow the rule of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” says Sheikh Al-Tamimi. “The protesters have managed to expose and discredit the government’s legitimacy to rule. But let me tell you this: without outside intervention, especially without the United States, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to topple Khamenei.”

Iraqis largely favor overthrowing Khamenei’s regime

He explains that Khamenei’s ouster would be welcomed by an overwhelming majority of Iraqis. But he still says we cannot ignore real concerns about the day after Khamenei and its impact on Iraq and broader regional security.

But there is another Iraq: an Iraq loyal to the Ayatollahs. Powerful and influential Shiite political and paramilitary groups, such as the Badr Organization armed group and the Iran-backed Fatah Coalition in the Iraqi parliament, have benefited from Iran’s massive investments in education and financing. These proxy forces maintain close ties with Tehran and cooperate with Iran’s men in Iraq.

One of these men is Emir Mousavi, a former Iranian defense official with close ties to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Mousavi has been Tehran’s central man in Baghdad at least since the killing of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis by the Americans in January 2020.

Mousavi has become a famous political analyst whose fame extends beyond the borders of Iraq and Iran. He has become a fixture on major Arabic-language news channels such as Al Jazeera, Al Mayadeen and Al Alam, mostly aligned with Iran and Türkiye.

Mousavi’s fluent Arabic and deep hatred for Israel played a major role in his rise as a well-known figure in regional media. Due to ongoing protests in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mousavi is regularly invited to speak on both Iraqi and regional channels.

Regarding the protests, he portrays them as “turbulence” driven by “agitators” and engineered by “foreign state actors.” In a recent interview with Iraqi television, he referred to the protesters as “terrorists” working with “foreign spies” who were “trained and equipped with maps and lists of people ordered to assassinate them.” He claimed that behind these spies were “three neighboring countries in particular” that officials in Tehran knew about and would “target soon”.

Moreover, he claims that all indicators support that these three countries are behind the financing, training and facilitation of the entry into Iran of “dark forces” that cause instability and terrorism. He said Tehran wants these countries to “explain, apologize, and cooperate with Tehran to reveal the location of the cells they planted in the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Mousavi declined to name the three countries, saying “Tehran wants to give them a chance to come clean.” One of these countries is probably the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq (Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG). It’s an area the IRGC has long targeted with ballistic missiles, claiming to have hit “a Mossad espionage ring,” among other claims. Other candidates could be Azerbaijan. Afghanistanand possibly Israel.

Suzan Quitaz is a Kurdish-Swedish journalist and researcher on Middle Eastern affairs. He is an Israel-based journalist and podcast host of the series “Exposing the Lies – Voice of Truth from the Middle East” in Arabic and English at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. He previously worked as a field producer and journalist for various media organizations in Qatar.