OBR says pension triple lock to cost three times initial estimate

According to the government’s official estimator, the cost of the state retirement triple lock is expected to be three times higher than the original prediction at the end of ten years.

The triple lock, which came into force in 2011, means that state retirement increases in accordance with inflation, wage increases or 2.5% each year – which is the highest.

Budget Responsibility Office (OBR) said the annual cost is expected to reach £ 15.5 billion by 2030.

In general, Obr said that British is “in a relatively vulnerable position” due to the pressure of the latest government U-transformation on the planned expenditure cuts of public finances.

According to the report, the proposed welfare invoice contributed to the increase in government debt, as well as restoring winter fuel payments for most plaintiffs.

He said: “British’s efforts to put public finances on a more sustainable basis, after the shocks, only in recent years, only limited and temporary success came together, debts continued to rise and borrowing remained because the governments reversed the plans to reinforce public financing.

“Planned tax increases were reversed and more importantly, the planned expenditure reductions were abandoned.”

OBR said that expenditures for the state pension has increased steadily, because the increasing number of people on the retirement age of the trilateral lock and the state contributed to costs.

“Due to inflation and gains volatility for the first twenty years, the triple key is about three times more expensive than the first expectations.”

Britain’s state pension is the second largest item in the government budget after health.

In 2011, the Conservative-Liberal Democratic Coalition brought a triple lock to ensure that the value of the state pension value or the income of working people are not passed.

Since then, the element that was not linked to the lock was triggered in the eight of 13 years ,, Obr attracted attention.

The reason for this was that inflation is “significantly more volatile than expected”.

In April 2025, the earnings connection meant that state retirement increased by 4.1%and obtained the following:

• £ 230.25 per week, New Straight Ratio State Pension (For those who reach the retirement age after April 2016) – 472 £ increase per year
• £ 176.45 per week, Old Basic State Pension (For those who reached the age of state before April 2016) – 363 £ increase per year

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Labor Government would hold a triple lock until the end of the current parliament.

However, before and since promising this manifesto, there has been an intense debate about the cost of the triple lock and whether it was right.

Last week, the Institute of Effective Financial Research, an independent economic thinking tank, suggested that the triple lock be scrapped as part of a wider pension revision.

He argued that the cost should be compatible with prices, but the average earnings across economy should be linked to the target level.

Retired groups say that many elderly people face high life costs and especially the amount paid in Europe is far from the most generous state pension, because they need to protect a triple lock to prevent further falling into financial difficulties.