ET poll: Economists predict RBI to hold policy rates steady amid economic uncertainty

A significant majority of economists who participated in the survey by ET expects the Indian Reserve Bank (RBI) to change the policy rates next week, although decision -makers who want to maintain the proportions of restraining interruptions due to potential growth difficulties arising by US tariffs.

14 of the 22 economists who participated in the survey believes to protect the repo ratio of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the October 1 meeting by 5.50%.

Anz Bank’s economist Dhiraj Nim, who foresees a ratio deduction in August policy, is now expected to remain unchanged after the biggest deductions in the goods and service tax (GST). The new two -layer and sharp -reduced tax regime entered into force on 22 September.
Nim said, “The slowdown in H2 is still not very visible, and we still don’t know the effect of the GST cuts and how slow slowing it is. So why is it wasting the bullet immediately?

NIM, consumer inflation is expected to alleviate further, a portion of the decline rather than a wide -based demand slowing down the last goods and service tax (GST) ratio deductions will be due to the effect of ‘status’ economists represent. Moreover, in the first half of the inflation in the first half of 2026, RBI is expected to exceed the target of 4%. The growth appearance continues to be mixed with GST cuts, but it continues to be blurred by uncertainties around higher US tariffs. Considering these risks, they may be cautious to maintain the policy area. On the other hand, those who cut a ratio argue that as a forward -looking central bank, RBI should take comfort in alleviating inflation and reduce policy rates and act proactively. Retail inflation was below 2.7% of 4% for the seventh month in August. The economy expanded by 7.8% faster than expected in April-June.

Inflation dynamics
Pranjul Bhandari, the head of HSBC, the Chief Indian economist, believes that this will be a call for a ‘pigeon’, and the RBI is more actively discussing the low -sequential momentum in inflation. If a 50 % tariff remains in December, a 25 -based rate awaits a deduction.

“The increase in consumption led by the GST and Diwali Festival will end until then and the dragging of trade will begin to appear more,” he said.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the decision of the six -person ratio determination committee after a three -day meeting that ended on Wednesday, October 1.

In addition to the EXPERIENCE policy review assessment, the RBI will also publish a two -year monetary policy report and give short -term and long -term estimates on growth and inflation.

While most economists maintain 6.5%GDP growth forecast of the Central Bank, the Central Bank expects 26 consumer price index -based inflation projection in 3.1%of the Central Bank.

Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare are waiting for an average of 2.4%26 CPI inflation and create space for more convenience. The main situations of 25 BPS cut at the repo ratio next week are based on comfort against inflation.