Bitcoin down nearly 30% from record high — history shows that’s normal
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BitcoinThe drop of more than 30% from its record high underscores the volatility that characterizes the cryptocurrency.
According to figures compiled by CoinDesk Data for CNBC, movements in previous cycles not only show that current price swings are part of Bitcoin’s normal operating pattern, but also that they can often precede a rally.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, dropped to around $80,000 at the end of last month, then had a rally this week before falling again. When Bitcoin fell below $81,000, it represented a decline of approximately 36% from its all-time high of $126,000 in early October. On Thursday, Bitcoin was trading above $93,000, down nearly 26% from its record high, according to Coinmetrics.
These price fluctuations may seem large, but they are normal given Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin’s price movement is often referred to as “cycles”. Broadly speaking, the Bitcoin cycle refers to a four-year pattern of price movement that revolves around a major event known as the halving, which is a change in mining rewards written into Bitcoin’s code. While there are signs that the typical timing and patterns of cycles may change, the range of price movements appears consistent.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin weathered a 32.7% pullback from March to August 2024 and a 31.7% pullback from January to April 2025, according to CoinDesk Data.
“Looking at previous cycles, volatility of this magnitude appears consistent with long-term trends,” Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at CoinDesk Data, told CNBC.
Bitcoin’s ups and downs can be seen throughout its history.
During the 2017 cycle, there were declines of nearly 40% twice that year, followed by a 29% decline in November before Bitcoin reached a new record high in December.
Looking at the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin dropped 31.2% in January and 26% in February of that year. There was a correction of more than 55% between April and June 2021 due to China banning bitcoin mining. The asset then rose to a new high in November of that year.
“While deeper mid-cycle corrections have certainly occurred, almost all of them – with the exception of the mining ban decline in 2021 – have occurred within a broader bullish structure, often remaining above key technical levels such as the 50-week moving average,” Joseph said.
What caused the market movements?
Starting October 10, more than one 1.6 million investors suffered a total wipeout of $19.37 billion of leveraged positions in a 24-hour period. Many traders were removed from their positions and the impact spread throughout the industry.
This impact is still being felt, according to Token Bay Capital founder Lucy Gazmararian.
“[It was the] “It’s the biggest liquidation in crypto history and it takes a few weeks to see the repercussions and for the market to consolidate,” Gazmararian told “Access Middle East” on Thursday.
“It also came at a time when there were concerns that we were coming to the end of the bull market… which increased fear levels in the market.”
In the past, when the bull market ended and there was a period of falling prices often referred to as the “crypto winter,” Bitcoin tended to remain 70% to 80% below its all-time high. This has not happened yet. However, concerns about this happening occupy the minds of investors.
“In reality, the timing of the downturn that we are in the cycle is making investors cautious if we see an 80% decline,” Gazmararian said.
