Botched estimates reveal big aged care worker shortage

Australia’s aged care worker shortage is four times greater than previously thought after the federal government distorted its long-term forecasts.

Despite a series of pay rises, Labor’s own figures show an extra 35,000 aged care workers are needed this financial year alone as Australia’s population ages and more people need support.

A ministerial memo obtained by the AAP under freedom of information laws shows around 120,000 more staff, including nurses, nurse practitioners and personal care workers, will be needed by 2035/36.

The government has also released data showing some green shoots in the sector, with waiting lists for care starting to decline.

Over the past few months, 25,000 older Australians have been taken off waiting lists and into care, partly due to the rapid rollout of more home care packages.

But 113,000 people are still waiting to be evaluated for care.

A further 107,281 people have been assessed but are not receiving the support they need.

The government says 99 percent of them receive some assistance, but at a lower level.

Aged care providers have been grappling with worker shortages for years and a number of reports have warned of major shortages unless urgent action is taken.

In recent years the government has insisted that the staff shortage is relatively small and falling.

Documents from the last two years show that the “labor gap” (the number of extra employees required to recruit suitable staff for the sector) is only 6890.

But a note from March 2025 reveals a critical flaw in the government’s calculations that led to the famine being vastly underestimated.

The error relates to mandatory care minutes, which require aged care residents to receive at least 215 minutes of care each day.

The old model assumed that after a person had received the mandatory 215 minutes, staff could continue to assist other residents.

In its updated analysis, the ministry acknowledged that some older people may need assistance for longer periods of time.

The declaration warned that the change in approach had created a “significant widening” of the labor shortage

Opposition aged care spokeswoman Anne Ruston said the development was extremely worrying.

“The government has vastly underestimated the unresolved aged care workforce crisis. It is worrying to learn that the shortfall is not a few thousand jobs as they claim,” he told AAP.

The coalition is expected to discuss the issue in parliamentary sessions on Wednesday.

Aged Care Minister Sam Rae said Labor had made aged care a “fantastic and desirable career option” by providing workers with better pay.

“Due to a decade of neglect by the former Liberal government, we have inherited a crippled aged care sector: wages that do not reflect the skill and professionalism of the job of caring for older Australians,” he said.

In both residential and home care, the lack of personal care personnel is the biggest problem.

Personal care workers are responsible for helping older people with daily tasks such as showering and dressing, as well as assisting with medical treatments and procedures.

According to the Ministry’s estimates, an additional 94,000 personal care workers will be needed by 2035.

The nursing shortage is expected to continue in the next decade.