Both sides say democracy at stake with Prop. 50, for different reasons

If the ads are any indication, Proposition 50 offers Californians a stark choice: “Stick with Trump” or “throw away the constitution” for Democrats to seize power.

And like most things in 2025, Trump looks like an exciting topic.

Despite the incendiary campaigns to which California has become accustomed, Proposition 50 stands out for its sharp attacks on eliminating the intense, esoteric issue of congressional redistricting. It comes down to a basic truth: It’s a Democratic-led measure to restructure California’s congressional districts to help their party gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026 and quash President Trump’s attempts to keep Republicans in power by similar means in other states.

So far, the anti-Trump message preached by proponents of Proposition 50, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom and other top Democrats, appears to be the most effective.

The proposal’s supporters have vastly outnumbered their opponents, and Proposition 50, one of the most expensive ballot campaigns in state history, is leading in the polls.

“When you can take an issue and make it personal, you have the advantage. In this case, 50 supporters can do whatever they can to stop Donald Trump,” said former legislative leader and state GOP Chairman Jim Brulte.

The drama is magnified by the role of two political and cultural icons who have emerged as leaders of both parties: in favor of former President Obama and against former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, both of whom argue that the very essence of democracy is at stake.

Schwarzenegger and the two main committees opposing Proposition 50 focused on the ethical and moral imperative of preserving the independent redistricting commission. Californians voted in 2010 to create the panel that would draw the state’s congressional district boundaries after each census to ensure fair representation for all state residents.

This is not a political ideal that can be easily explained in a 30-episode television commercial or an Instagram post.

Brulte said redistricting is a “complex issue,” but noted that “the no side has the burden of explaining what the initiative actually does, and the yes side should use crib notes.” [that] this is about stopping Trump; “It’s a much easier way.”

Partisans on both sides of the aisle agree.

“The yes side quickly capitalized on anti-Trump messaging and is closing with direct base appeals to secure the lead,” said Jamie Fisfis, a political strategist who has worked on many of the GOP congressional campaigns in California. “The partisanship and high awareness behind the measure meant it was less likely to be crushed under the weight of negative publicity, as other initiatives often do. This was a vote for inclusion.”

In ads aired during the World Series and NFL games, Obama urged voters to support Proposition 50, warning that “Democracy is on the ballot on November 4.” In ads for the best-funded committee opposing the proposal, Schwarzenegger said opposing the ballot measure was critical to ensuring citizens were not overrun by elected officials.

“The Constitution does not begin with ‘We, the politicians.'” Schwarzenegger begins with “We, the people,” a speech he told USC students in mid-September, an excerpt from an anti-Proposition 50 ad. “Democracy; We have to protect it and go fight for it.”

California’s Democratic-led Legislature voted in August to put the redistricting proposal on the November ballot, which would likely expand its ranks in Congress. The measure put forward by Newsom was an effort to counter Trump’s efforts to increase the number of GOP members in the House from Texas and other GOP-led states.

The GOP holds a narrow advantage in the House of Representatives, and next year’s elections will determine which party controls the body during Trump’s final two years in office and whether they can advance his agenda or become the focus of investigations and possible impeachment.

Noticeably missing from California’s Proposition 50 fight is its trigger: Trump.

The decision by opponents of the proposal not to single out Trump is not surprising, given that the president is widely unpopular among Californians. More than two-thirds of likely voters in the state disapproved of him serving as president in late October, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll.

But Trump urged California voters not to vote by mail or vote early, claiming in a social media post that both voting methods were “dishonest.”

Some GOP leaders in California feared Trump’s announcement would suppress Republican votes.

Recently, the California Republican Party sent mailers to registered Republicans shaming them for not voting. “Your neighbors are watching,” reads the post, which features a picture of a woman looking through binoculars. “Don’t disappoint your neighbors. They will learn!”

Tuesday’s election will cost state taxpayers about $300 million. And it’s unclear whether the outcome will make a difference in control of the House of Representatives, given multiple redistricting efforts in other states.

But some Democrats are divided over the amount of money spent on an effort that won’t change the partisan makeup of Congress.

Johanna Moska, who worked in the Obama administration, called Proposition 50 “frustrating.”

“I wish we could find a way for government to be affordable for people, if we were spending money to solve government problems,” he said. “Gavin has found what works for Gavin. And that’s resistance to Trump.”

Newsom’s efforts to counter Trump are seen as a key argument if he runs for president in 2028, which he has acknowledged he is considering.

Proposition 50 has also become a platform for other politicians aiming to run in 2026, including California governor Sen. Alex Padilla and billionaires Rick Caruso and Tom Steyer.

The field is in flux and there is no clear front runner.

Padilla being thrown to the ground in Los Angeles while trying to question Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem about the Trump administration’s immigration policies is featured prominently in television ads promoting Proposition 50. Steyer, a longtime Democratic donor who briefly ran for president in 2020, raised eyebrows as the sole speaker in his second television ad. Caruso, who ran unsuccessfully against Karen Bass in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race and is rumored to be considering another political campaign, recently sent glowing mailers to voters supporting Proposition 50.

Steyer has pledged $12 million to support Proposition 50. The first ad, which shows the Trump impersonator becoming increasingly angry as news comes out that the ballot measure has passed, made its debut on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” It was published during. Steyer’s second ad focused entirely on him, fueling speculation about a possible gubernatorial run next year.

Advertisements opposing the proposal have been aired less frequently and have been removed from television altogether in recent days.

“The yes side had the advantage of presenting the question to voters as a referendum on Trump,” said Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist who worked for Schwarzenegger but was not involved in any of the Proposition 50 campaigns. “Asking people to go to the polls to save a government commission, that is not a rallying cry.”