Brisbane Olympics 2032 predicted to impact construction workforce in Western Australia
Western Australia’s population, particularly its construction workforce, looks set to be materially impacted by the massive construction program needed to launch the 2032 Olympic Games in Brisbane.
A new in-depth look at WA’s population by the Bankwest Curtin Economic Center has found the west and Queensland are already locked in a tight labor battle given the states’ similar economic profiles, and predicted the Olympics will draw more workers east.
“Recent developments have sharpened this competition,” the report said.
“Strong construction activity and targeted workforce incentives in Queensland, combined with preparations for the 2032 Olympic Games in Brisbane, have increased demand for skilled trades and construction workers and created retention challenges for Western Australia.
“At the same time, the strength of Western Australia’s resource sector, underpinned by global commodity demand, continues to exert a strong gravitational pull on labour, attracting workers from across Australia where economic conditions favor the state.”
The Queensland and Commonwealth governments have allocated a $7.1 billion infrastructure budget for the games.
Report one of the most detailed looks at WA’s population Since reaching 3 million people in 2024It predicts the state will be home to 3.5 million people by 2033, with WA expected to reach 4 million by 2043.
Bankwest Curtin Economics Center director Professor Alan Duncan said WA’s migration patterns had historically followed the rhythms of the resource sector.
“Movements in iron ore prices and mining investment shape labor demand and wages, and these signals translate into migration flows with a clear and measurable lag of approximately 12 to 18 months,” he said.
“When we explicitly include these economic factors in population modelling, forecasts become much more predictable and more meaningful for decision-makers to weather the economic pressure caused by rapid population growth.
“A sustained increase in mining investment intensity could add around 60,000 people to WA’s population by 2039, and a 10 per cent increase in iron ore prices could add around 40,000 people.”
The report’s modeling suggested that for every 10 per cent increase in the price of iron ore, approximately 283 more interstate migrants entered Western Australia each quarter.
The effects of the price increase on the population occur with a lag of 12 to 18 months, which the government can use to plan ahead for issues such as housing, the report said.
Housing also greatly influenced population growth; Every 10 percent increase in home completion created measurable increases.
“When housing supply lags behind labor demand and immigration inflows, pressure quickly increases on rental markets, construction costs and labor mobility,” Duncan said.
“Housing now serves as economic infrastructure. Without adequate completion, migration slows and growth potential diminishes.”
Despite known problems with housing in WA, the report found that migration of construction-related workers was slowing and served as a warning to the government.
“Tightening the transition line for construction shows that the work that needs to be done to ensure an adequate supply of skilled workers in construction and construction areas continues,” the report said.
“This underscores the ongoing risks that skills shortages pose to construction project timing and costs, especially given the strong competition from other jurisdictions for skilled jobs… it also suggests that local education alone may be insufficient to meet workforce needs in the short term.”
The report called for housing supply to be treated as economic infrastructure rather than being left solely to the market.
The report also calls for the government to create a Western Australian population and migration strategy to set targets for the scale and composition of migration, including skills, age and settlement patterns.
Hamish Hastie is WAtoday’s state political correspondent and the winner of five WA Media Awards, including the 2023 Beck Award for best political journalism.Connect with: X or email.
