Reform UK insider warns that data shows comfortable win for Andy Burnham in crucial Makerfield by-election
A Reform England board member admitted Andy Burnham was “making things very difficult” for the party in the crucial Makerfield by-election as internal data showed Nigel Farage’s party heading for a comfortable defeat.
Gawain Towler, a long-time ally of reform leader Mr Farage, said: Times Radio Mr Burnham had “changed the tone”, he said, adding that defeating him in Thursday’s crucial vote would be “a very, very difficult task”.
His comments come as data compiled by Reform UK and seen by the US. Independent, It appears to confirm that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is poised to split the right-wing vote and provide such support that Reform will destroy their chances of victory over Labour.
Data compiled by an experienced election campaigner who has spent significant time in the constituency since the by-election was announced predicted Mr Burnham would win by five points.
They predict Labor will get around 17,500 votes, Reform will get 16,000 and Mr Lowe’s Restore Britain will get 2,000.
In percentage terms this means Burnham received 45.5 per cent, Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon received 41 per cent and Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd received 5 per cent.
The data appears to confirm private polling for Labour. Independent It was announced on Friday.
But a Reform insider said Mr Burnham could win by an even bigger margin of around eight points. This was despite Reform suggesting in briefings to other publications that the gap had closed to two points in a bid to talk their chances and squeeze the Restore Britain vote.
Someone from within the reform told Independent: “Burnham certainly manages to win over 2024 Labor voters who won’t vote in 2026.
“Burnham is also able to effectively squeeze Green, Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters in a way that other Labor figures cannot.”
They added that reform was vulnerable to female voters voting for the party in 2026, which could be important in a tight race. It follows misogyny allegations against Reform candidate Mr Kenyon, which Mr Farage has tried to dismiss as “public speech”.
But the insider added pointedly: “Restoration is certainly there, although their votes are extremely soft; but Reform doesn’t have the operational sophistication to squeeze them.”
They predicted Mr. Lowe’s party could win by as much as 8 percent on a good day. Reform, meanwhile, hopes the Greens’ vote will rise to 5 per cent or more, taking Mr Burnham’s vote.
But a comfortable victory for Mr Burnham would be seen as a disaster in a district where Reform won every council seat just weeks ago.
Another ally of Mr Farage said: “We need to win seats like Makerfield even with Burnham standing. This reveals a lot of the weaknesses in the operation.”
The two biggest problems appear to be “another disastrous candidate selection” with Mr Kenyon and an inability to cope with Restore on the right, who also has the backing of X owner Elon Musk, the world’s first trillionaire.
An ally of Mr Farage said: “Basically Restore is becoming Reform what Ukip is to the Conservatives, attracting votes on the right with a more populist message. Nigel has lost his way and allowed Reform to be watered down by the Conservatives; he needs to get back to being true to himself.”
