California billionaire tax faces uphill battle, new poll finds

With about 10 months left until the 2026 elections, one of the most important issues in California is the proposed tax on billionaires.

New polling released Tuesday finds supporters of the Billionaire Tax Act face an uphill battle convincing voters in liberal California. The proposal, for which signatures are currently being collected to be added to the November ballot, calls for a one-time 5% tax on the total wealth of state residents of at least $1 billion, starting from January 1, 2026.

The proposed tax initiative starts with 48% support, 38% oppose and 14% undecided, according to the Mellman Group, which was tapped by Republican strategist Mike Murphy of Kensington Avenue Strategies to conduct the survey on behalf of interested parties, including some high-net-worth individuals.

The survey, conducted January 6-12, included responses from 800 voters representing likely November 2026 voters in California.

Mellman noted that the group was testing the official title and summary that would appear in voting materials, and that ballot initiatives that started with less than 50 percent had a hard time succeeding.

After respondents were given positive and negative information about the proposal, support dropped to 46 percent, while opposition rose to 44 percent. Voters expressed concern that the measure could hurt the state’s economy and cost jobs.

“There is no love for billionaires,” Murphy said at a news conference Tuesday. “But there are serious doubts among voters about whether this measure will deliver on what it promises.”

The Service Employees International Union West Healthcare Workers is proposing the legislation, estimating that about 200 jobs in the state would be subject to the tax. Proceeds will be used in part to close funding gaps for health care in the state due to federal funding cuts.

The poll found that 69 percent of voters believe it is almost certain or very likely that billionaires will hire lawyers and accountants to avoid taxes, leading to the state raising far less money than anticipated in the initiative. There is also concern that billionaires will leave and take their companies with them, hurting the state’s economy.

Nearly half of those surveyed said it was almost certain or very likely that the case would end up in the courts and that “billionaires, who already hold most of the state tax revenue, will leave California for lower-tax states and avoid paying that tax.”

“This data paints a clear picture that this initiative faces an uphill battle,” Mellman Group said. “Initiatives run into trouble when voters think negative outcomes are much more likely than positive outcomes if they pass.”

The proposal caused a rift in Silicon Valley as prominent tech investors attacked Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who represents the district and has been a vocal supporter of the effort. Venture investor and White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks opposed the measure, along with tech investors like Chamath Palihapitiya, Vinod Khosla and Y Combinator’s Garry Tan.

Google The company’s founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, left the state after the offer. New York Timesand Peter Thiel said in recent weeks that he has established a significant presence in Miami, including opening an office for his venture firm.

Even Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom came out with strong opposition, as did San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is also a Democrat.

However Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose net worth exceeds $150 billion, said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this month that he was “very comfortable with it” regarding the potential tax. Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he plans to stay in the state.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Bloomberg the tax was “ill-conceived.”

Michael Bloomfield, chief executive of the Mellman Group, told reporters that the survey found doubts about the proposed revenue from the tax to solve the state’s health problems.

“We know [health care] “This is one of the most complex problems people face,” Bloomfield said, adding that messages about protecting the budget from federal health care cuts were “the least convincing” for participants.

WRISTWATCH: Tax fears in California fuel immigration debate