California Dems launch polling effort to winnow gubernatorial field
As concerns grow among California Democrats about the potential for a Republican to be elected governor, the state party will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on the ballot to assess the viability of an expanding field of candidates hoping to replace ousted Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to plans unveiled Tuesday.
The move comes after nearly every Democratic candidate rejected calls from party leaders last week to drop out of the race to avoid splitting the vote in the June primary; it was an outcome that could lead to a Republican being elected to statewide office for the first time in two decades.
“Candidates have filed and now have the opportunity to demonstrate their ability to survive and their means to win. I want to make sure everyone has the information to fully understand the current state of the race,” said Rusty Hicks, leader of the California Democratic Party.
As the campaign season ramps up, he said the series of six surveys will allow “candidates, supporters, media, voters, everyone to have a clear understanding of what’s going on in this particular race.”
The deadline for voting on June 2 was Friday. Three days ago, Hicks published an open letter urging candidates without a path to victory to drop out of the race. Of the nine prominent Democrats who have announced a run for governor, only one heeded his call: former State House Majority Leader Ian Calderon.
This means the names of the other eight candidates will appear on the ballot regardless of whether they later decide to withdraw. This creates the possibility of a Republican winning the race because of how California elections are determined.
The state has a voter-approved top-two primary system; According to this system, the two candidates who received the most votes in the June primaries advance to the November general elections, regardless of their party.
The ballot will include two prominent Republicans: former conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Even though Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 and the state’s voters last elected Republicans into statewide office in 2006, it is mathematically possible for Democrats to split the vote, allowing the two GOP candidates to advance.
Under such a scenario, not only would Republicans be guaranteed leadership of the nation’s most populous state, but Democratic voter turnout would also likely be low in November, potentially affecting down-ballot races that could determine control of Congress.
Hicks’ call last week raised concerns among candidates of color, including former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and State Supt. Public Education’s Tony Thurmond said this effort targets every candidate of color in the race.
The state party chairman said his letter was not directed at any specific candidate.
When asked about the racist allegations, Hicks said, “This is not something I’m going to lose any sleep over.” But he added that the voter surveys will be conducted by Los Angeles-based Evitarus, the state’s only full-service Black and Latino polling company, and will oversample historically underrepresented communities (Latino, Black and Asian American voters).
Hicks said the vote would cost “six figures” but did not specify the exact amount.
The first poll will be released on March 24, and then five more polls will be released every seven to 10 days until voters begin receiving ballots by mail in early May.
“We’re pushing this to make sure that everyone is armed with the information they need to have an eyes-wide-open assessment of where the state of the race currently stands between now and when ballots hit voters’ mailboxes,” Hicks said.
