Can Congress overcome its ‘weak link’ tag in Bihar polls?

The Data Point published on Wednesday discussed in detail the spoiler effect created by Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections and also examined the possibility of it affecting the upcoming 2025 elections. This impact was one of the key reasons why the 2020 elections turned into a close contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the RJD-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). mahagatbandhan (grand alliance).

Today, we will examine another major reason behind the infighting in 2020 – the poor performance of the Congress party – and assess whether this imbalance within the alliance will affect the outcome of the 2025 elections.

In 2020, the Congress recorded a contested vote share of 32.9%; This rate is the lowest among major votes. mahagatbandhan alliance partners as shown in the table below.

In comparison, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) got 39%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 37.6% and CPI(ML)(L) 41.4%. Contested vote share refers to the percentage of votes a party received in the seats it is contesting. In the 2015 elections, the Congress recorded 39.5% contested votes.

Table 2 shows the parties’ strike rate, calculated by dividing the number of seats won by the total number of seats contested. In 2020, Congress’s strike rate was again the lowest at 27.1%. mahagatbandhan alliance partners.

In comparison, RJD recorded 52.1%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 50% and CPI(ML)(L) 63.1%. In fact, the Congress’s strike rate that year was also lower than that of the main constituents of the NDA.

In the 2015 elections, the Congress’s strike rate was much higher at 65.9%. While the strike rates of the RJD and JD(U) also decreased between 2015 and 2020, the sharpest decline was seen in the Congress performance.

The table below shows the share of seats won by parties with a margin of victory of less than 5% of the vote. For example, in 2020, the Congress won 52.6% of its seats with a margin of less than 5%; This rate was the highest rate. mahagatbandhan alliance partners. While the first two charts show Congress losing more seats and gaining significantly lower vote share than its partners, the chart below shows that even the seats it won in 2020 were more than half close contests.

Taken together, these three data points show that the Congress remains the weakest link in the alliance, which explains why it fielded fewer candidates in 2025 compared to 2020. But reversing its fortunes will be an uphill task as the majority of seats contested by the Congress in 2025 are the same seats it contested and lost in 2020.

Moreover, in 2020, the Congress had a poor strike rate of only 18.9% in its direct fights against the BJP and in 2025, the two parties will face each other in 31 seats. Against JD(U), Congress had a better strike rate of 35.7% in 2020 and they will contest each other in 24 seats in 2025 as shown in the table below. However, Congress’s high strike rate against JD(U) can also be attributed to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) splitting the votes and hurting JD(U)’s chances in many seats.

The overall performance of the Congress in 2025 will be a crucial factor, especially in terms of seats contested against the BJP. mahagatbandhan.

To further complicate matters, the Congress faces friendly contests against the RJD in five seats, against Left parties in four seats and against a smaller partner, the India Inclusive Party, in one seat. If there will be a close contest in 2025, these friendly seats may come under scrutiny, especially if they are lost, as seen in the table below.

MGB in tables: Mahagatbandhan alliance; confidentiality agreement; National Democratic Alliance; IIP: Inclusive India Party; VIP: Vikassheel Human Party. The left parties mentioned include Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist): CP|(M) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation): CPI(ML)(L). Janshakti Janta Dal (JJD), which is in the MGB alliance, was not included in the analysis.

Data for the charts are sourced from Election Commission of India and Lok Dhaba.

vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in, sambavi.p@thehindu.co.in

It was published – 07 November 2025 07:00 IST