Can the Gaza ceasefire deal survive?

When is a ceasefire no longer a ceasefire? It depends on who you ask.

“Nothing will jeopardize” the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that the Hamas leadership, along with Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye, have worked hard to secure, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday.

But while more than 100 people were reportedly killed in Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip late Tuesday, Israel’s accusations that Hamas fighters opened fire on its soldiers in Rafah, killing one and violating the terms of the agreement, take this definition of a “ceasefire” beyond naivety.

Israel says it has hit multiple “terror targets and terrorists.” The Hamas-run Civil Defense agency in Gaza said most of the dead were women and children and that the airstrikes targeted residential areas, schools and tents sheltering displaced families.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk called the deaths “horrific” and called on Israel to comply with international humanitarian law.

Ultimately, the survival of the much-vaunted ceasefire agreement and the broader, 20-point Trump peace plan for Gaza depends largely on the continued involvement of the current White House.

Trump, Vice President JD Vance, his special envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio were in Israel this month.

They have all spent a huge amount of time and effort trying to stop the carnage in Gaza, and they all have something to lose if their efforts fail.

In practice, this has several meanings.

While the United States has publicly acknowledged Israel’s right to respond to attacks it attributes to Hamas, U.S. officials have privately called for restraint to keep this agreement alive.

After the first major challenge to the ceasefire on October 19, when Israel said Hamas fighters shot two of its soldiers and killed more than 40 Palestinians in retaliatory strikes, it was Washington that got Israel to reopen border crossings to provide aid, and it was US pressure that prevented Israel from mounting an even harsher response.

Now that Hamas has returned its 20 live hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees in Israeli prisons, there are some on the far right in Israel, including the cabinet, who are calling on the government to restart all-out war against Hamas.

The White House is unlikely to allow this, but it does give Israel some leeway to respond to Hamas’ blatant violations.

So far, Hamas has strongly condemned Israeli airstrikes while insisting it is still adhering to the terms of the agreement.

“Hamas accepted the ceasefire because it seemed like the least bad option open to them, especially given that President Trump was personally invested in it and could act as an effective brake on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu,” said Tahani Mustafa, who teaches international relations at King’s College London.

But if violence becomes the norm, as happened on Tuesday, the ceasefire will exist in name only.

Although the biggest power behind this agreement is the United States, Egypt and Qatar are equally important in many respects.

Qatar has long hosted a round of peace talks attended by Hamas leaders, as well as the CIA and Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence agency, since the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel that sparked the war.

Despite the renewed bloodshed in Gaza, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani told a US audience on Wednesday: “Fortunately, I think the main parties are both. [Israel and Hamas] “They accept that the ceasefire must continue and that they must abide by the agreement.”

Dr. is a lecturer in Defense Studies at King’s College London. Robert Pinfold has a similar view.

“The ceasefire will probably continue,” he told the BBC. “Israel and Hamas realize that the cost of lifting the ceasefire is too high.”

But he is less optimistic when it comes to moving beyond phase one of Trump’s plan for Gaza.

“What remains is a meaningful transition to a better place, such as the rehabilitation and reconstruction of Gaza. Even if the ceasefire survives, it will remain tense,” he said.

“The prospect of ‘peace’ or the reconstruction of Gaza is as remote as ever.”