Carney vs Albanese. Redefining Australia’s place in the world. And Indonesia?

Canada’s redefinition of its relationship with Trump’s America is a stark reminder of Australia’s place in the world and our need to readjust. Duncan Graham Reports from our reluctant neighbor Indonesia.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke of the end of the rules-based world order. Without even mentioning Trump, the implication was clear: “A system that intensifies great power competition, no matter what,

Where the most powerful pursue their own interests by using economic integration as pressure.

His main message was to call on “middle powers” ​​such as Canada, Australia, and indeed Indonesia, to decide “whether to compete with each other for favors or to unite to create an effective third way.”

Carney didn’t mention Anthony Albanese either, but the implications for Australia are equally clear. Canada needs to move away from the United States, but so do we. And in the process, get closer to our region in general and our close neighbor Indonesia in particular.

If they want.

Both sides of politics agree on Indonesia’s importance. However, this feeling is not mutual. We don’t even drink their coffee.

We have had a free trade agreement with Indonesia since 2020. This was supposed to increase trade and bring neighbors closer. We became energetic. They yawned.

Namely: Indonesia is one of the world’s top five producers of quality coffee beans with various varieties, but we are only three percent of the crop. Exporters are friendly, importers are cautious. Although we are engaged in “dual value chain analysis”, we do not know why.

That’s why we buy from Brazil, Honduras and Vietnam; From almost anywhere except the spectacular Dutch-developed mountain slopes of East Java.

Proponents of closer ties that would lead to better relations have been considering duty-free deals and encouraging professionals for decades; They are more than just proximity.

Market next door

From the perspective of Western greed, the Indonesian market is an Eldorado; almost 280 million consumers, the world’s fourth largest population and third largest democracy. When you splash while swimming off Darwin in the Arafura Sea, your waves will reach Flores.

Much of the land is so fertile that a parked cane will sprout while its owner takes a nap. The workforce is huge and cheap; annual growth rate nudges five percent.

Volcanic ash, year-round tropical warmth, abundant rain, farmer’s ingenuity; all needed for three rice crops a year in some areas dots. Then resources and minerals – gold, copper, coal, oil, bauxite, tin and nickel, gas and thermal energy.

The Chinese have been growing and mining the archipelago since the 2nd century AD, the Dutch since the 15th century. In 2010 we thought this place might be worth a look.

The Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement floundered for a decade with on-and-off talks before the trade deal came into force in 2020.

That wasn’t the only thing that got tired.

Indonesia has survived two presidents, Australia has survived six prime ministers

The “agreement negotiations” went through many disagreements.

Katalis (catalyst) then happened “A unique five-year, government-supported business development program that unlocks the vast economic potential of the partnership between Australia and Indonesia.”

What does all this mean? Progressive high schools are teaching how to spot AI biases and dig into deepfake photos. They should also show how to read the government’s interpretation.

With love from Indonesia against suspicion of Australia

Which investments?

five years later IA-CEPA The final signed report, Unlocking Indonesia-Australia Investment, suggests plenty of vague optimism and a lack of solid conclusions.

Initial enthusiasm came from visionary economists, academic historians, social idealists and global thinkers. They had ideas but no influence. Putting wheels on the tractor was a $41.5 million expense for taxpayers.

What good things does investment bring back? Even though they are few, we now know that deficiencies and inadequacies are shared.

It’s not just Indonesia’s unstable law enforcement system, aka corruption, plus policy changes that have turned once hairy investors into bald ones, as well as Australian rules. We consider ourselves competent and professional when dealing with bureaucracy, costs and frustrating delays in processing documents.

Has our generosity brought trade to the point where companies can survive? The evidence is elusive. Some facts about Katalis, stripped of their shine:

More than 2,000 Australian businesses operate in tiny Singapore; There are only 179 businesses in Indonesia.

The largest sectors are resources and energy, education, manufacturing, technology and agri-food.

Approximately 50 Indonesian companies operate in Australia; Together they do not place Republic in the top 20 foreign investors Led by the USA, UK and Belgium.

Is there a glimmer of hope?

We sell our education, but we still sell very little to our neighbors. About 19,000 Indonesians were in Australia this year. student visa. Other countries think we are worth a longer and costly journey: China 143,000, India 109,000 and Nepal 54,000.

Cereals and beef remain top sellers. Indonesia is now our ninth largest trading partner; Two-way trade has nearly tripled in the last four years and Austrade is optimistic.

CEO Paul Grimes said “Australia is seeking to strengthen its role in the region through globally effective partnerships, including climate change adaptation, risk reduction and accelerating renewable energy transitions,” Indonesian media said.

It sounds good on the page. What this means in the factories of the Republic is another matter.

Those who pursued profit had concrete gains. Three units (Monash, Western Sydney and Central Queensland) are already whiteboarding in Indonesia; Megapharma softens the pillows of the sickly rich.

The main goal is not the poor in need based on According to Oxfam International, which is responding to the crisis, Indonesia “now has the sixth largest wealth inequality in the world… The four richest men in Indonesia own more wealth than the poorest 100 million combined.”

Catalyst initiative – opportunity missed?

One of the beneficiaries of Katalis irradiation factory Sterilizing fresh fruits to control pests in mangosteen and mango gardens. So, if the market is viable, why don’t exporters bear the cost and not potential buyers?

Katalis recently produced a beautiful 66-page ‘final report’ in which Paul Bartlett, director of Katalis, mildly reprimands both countries for their lack of interest and lists “significant policy and analytical achievements that underpin future cooperation”.

“Together, these achievements demonstrate that Katalis has achieved its initial goals and created enduring platforms for innovation, investment and policy reform that will continue to deepen the Indonesia-Australia economic partnership well beyond 2025.

“These deliverables were developed through extensive consultation with both government and business stakeholders, ensuring policy validity and ownership.”

To help make jargon clear, MWM Ask Bartlett a few questions. His office replied: “Requests for media interviews require review/approval by DFAT (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade)”, leaving all our questions unanswered:

• If you are closing up shop, who will follow up on your “recommendations for further investigation”?
• This year, “more than 700 professionals from many industries attended monthly webinars delivered by Australia’s leading registered training organisations.” Online programs would normally be an undertaking and a cost to Indonesian education authorities. How many of the 700 participants currently have jobs?
• “Katalis leveraged more than $133 million in bilateral investment commitments.” Is “leverage” synonymous with promotions or something more important? What are “investment commitments”?
• Disincentives appear to be significant for Indonesian investors, especially in terms of the visa application process for skilled workers. What is being done to solve these and other problems identified by the focus groups? Do Singaporean and Malaysian investors face the same problems?
• You write that “investment in priority sectors is significantly underrepresented.” Since IA-CEPA has been in effect for five years, your statement suggests that predictions of better relations have not yet emerged.

Moreover, there is no list of factories opened, no depth of research drillings, no kilometers of pipelines laid. If something like this exists, it should be in the headlines.

Getting along with Indonesia beyond security and defense is a laudable ideal that requires a sophisticated approach to a complex market.

Katalis and IA-CEPA have not yet found the right way to dissolve; An itchy scalp can be made easier with a cup of real java or nasi goreng fried rice that adds spice to bacon and eggs.

Overall, IA-CEPA looks more like a forced marriage than a union of equals.

Only Ozzie’s son-in-law is hot. Unrequited love.

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Duncan Graham has a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other awards for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He currently lives in Indonesia.