Catherine Connolly’s landslide shakes Ireland’s establishment – but not its politics | Ireland

Catherine Connolly’s landslide victory in the Irish presidential election is a stunning political success that humiliates the establishment, but it does not represent a national swing to the left.

There was nothing inevitable about his victory, let alone its size. When she announced her candidacy in July, she was the only woman: a left-wing independent member of parliament from Galway who was unknown to most voters.

But the 68-year-old won support from a patchwork of smaller opposition parties including the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, Labor and then a major party, Sinn Féin, which decided not to nominate its own candidate, in a rare show of unity from the often fractious left.

Even then Connolly looked like an outside bet. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the two ruling centre-right parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, have put forward their own candidates. According to election rules, voters choose candidates in order of preference; so if one candidate was eliminated, transfers were expected to help the other institution get over the line.

Instead, a collision of events has turned Connolly, who speaks so softly that you have to lean in to hear him, into a political storm. He received 64 percent of the vote; It received a wide range of votes in villages, cities and, above all, among young people.

So for the next seven years, Ireland will have a head of state who believes in equality and protects Ireland’s neutrality from what he calls Western “militarism” and the enablement of genocide. Some in Britain liken Connolly to Jeremy Corbyn and marvel or bemoan the fact that an EU state is veering to the left while many other countries are veering to the right or far right.

But the selection does not fit into such neat packaging. There is no doubt that this is an earthquake that shakes the authority and confidence of the government and strengthens the possibility of a left alliance in the next general elections. But this does not represent an ideological change.

The presidency is a largely ceremonial office. Mary Robinson has turned it into a more visible platform and Mary McAleese and Michael D Higgins have continued the trend, but whoever occupies the Áras an Uachtaráin residence in Phoenix Park will be in a very limited position.

Voters twice elected Higgins, himself an outspoken leftist from Galway, but handed executive power to successive coalitions dominated by Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. Connolly may highlight issues, set a tone, make symbolic gestures, perhaps clash with the government on policy issues, but he has promised to stick to the constitution and respect those limits.

There is a perception outside Ireland that Connolly will be Sinn Féin’s instrument for a united Ireland. He was helped by the party’s formidable resources and electoral organization, but Connolly showed little interest in the issue of unification and it featured little in the campaign. She is her own woman and does her own thing; as his former party, Labor, discovered when he broke away and was elected to the Dáil as an independent in 2016.

Connolly’s supporters are passionate and talking about a movement. It is conceivable that opposition parties, having tasted victory, will turn into a viable government-in-waiting. But two factors should temper talk of a breakthrough.

The ruling parties sabotaged themselves. Fianna Fáil was led by a political newcomer named Jim Gavin, who floundered and withdrew from the race due to a financial scandal. His late withdrawal meant that his name remained on the ballot paper, but party loyalists had little incentive to vote or, more importantly, to give a second preference to the other establishment candidate.

Fine Gael’s original candidate, Mairead McGuinness, left the party, citing health issues, so the party turned to Heather Humphreys, relying on centrist appeal and rural health; but voters found it insipid.

For all the agility of Connolly’s campaign, including viral videos showing him doing it watchmenHis opponents’ mistakes brought victory, and the left cannot accept a repeat of that.

The other factor was that most people did not vote (turnout was estimated at around 46%, reflecting widespread apathy), and a record number of people deliberately spoiled their votes, reflecting frustration at the lack of alternative candidates. Some bemoaned the absence of social conservatives, others complained that no one reflected their concerns on immigration.

Connolly wins the landslide but not everyone is cheering.