The burden of the new Bihar Chief Minister

‘End of an era’ is a cliché used ad nauseam for the political transition Bihar will witness as it waits for a new chief minister. But there are several prisms through which we can evaluate this change.

The most important of these is the change in the command center. Thirty-six years after Lalu Prasad Yadav took office in 1990, which greatly disrupted the continuity of the Congress, the Prime Minister’s post is returning to a national party. Now Delhi, not Patna, will make the decisions. No matter who is elected to the Prime Minister’s seat, he will no longer be the final arbiter. He, or possibly she, will have to listen to the leadership in Delhi. The political longevity enjoyed by both Lalu and Nitish Kumar is not something the incoming Prime Minister will inherit. They will need to protect their wings and keep an eye on other candidates waiting for them to slide.

Impressive legacies

In his campaign speeches, Nitish Kumar often talked about “Bihar kya tha” (what Bihar once was) and referred to the State’s allegedly dark past. This specter of ‘Jungle Raj’ can no longer be deployed. In the post-Nitish era, his successor’s tenure will no longer be compared to that of the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) government; instead, it will be judged according to Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule. Nitish Kumar for a long time sushasan babu (management man), this narrative will be difficult to sustain or transcend.

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While Lalu Prasad Yadav touched on caste injustices and restored dignity to marginalized communities, Nitish Kumar also voiced his Bihar policy asmita (identity) is trying to restore the pride of the State among the Biharis within and outside its borders. The new Prime Minister will need to shift into third gear and address Bihar’s most pressing issue: immigration.

It is no longer enough for the lower castes to find a voice or for the state to gain some measure of respect through infrastructure development. The new Prime Minister must ensure that those born in Bihar also have the option to live and work there without having to leave there in search of livelihood. According to the 2011 census, nine million people born in Bihar work outside the state, and it is stated that this figure may increase according to the last census.

Moreover, an unstable caste and social balance was maintained between the Lalu and Nit governments. The RJD was often derisively dismissed by its opponents as a Muslim-Yadav party. What is often overlooked is that Muslims and Yadavs are not natural allies. In fact, the two communities were on opposing sides in many of Bihar’s notorious riots, including the Bhagalpur riots. This alliance was crafted by Lalu Prasad with a combination of outreach and the promise of a meaningful stake in governance.

Although the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) led by Nitish Kumar has consistently failed to secure Muslim voter support, the community has not felt threatened under his rule. Bihar generally maintained communal peace.

Maintaining this balance will be a challenge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government.

Challenges and hopes

With the BJP at the helm, communal concerns regarding reservation may resurface. Some signs are already visible. On March 18, over 1,000 students from various organizations took to the streets and demanded the immediate implementation of the University Grants Commission (UGC) Equality Rules, which were annulled by the Supreme Court. The onus is on the BJP to choose a Prime Minister who can present a reassuring counter-narrative.

Possibilities are also many in the post-Nitish Bihar era. Between the forward caste-dominated BJP and the Yadav-dominated RJD, there are many smaller caste groups that do not have a natural political home. In Nitish Kumar’s absence, the JD(U) may not be able to provide a stable base for these communities. This creates an opportunity for Congress to fill the gap. But it can emerge as a viable alternative only if it emerges from the shadow of the RJD and functions as an independent force rather than a fringe party.

On March 30, Nitish Kumar resigned from the Bihar Legislative Council. He is scheduled to take oath in the Rajya Sabha by April 10. Contrary to expectations, there has been no protest within the JD(U) and so far the transition appears to be smooth.

But the real test of whether this stability will last is just beginning.