Chelsea vs Arsenal: Are Blues genuine title contenders?
Simply put, Chelsea are playing well but not good enough to be champions.
Chelsea’s attack is on par with Arsenal’s despite losing Cole Palmer to injury for more than two months.
However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive stats set them apart.
Historically, a team must average +1 non-penalty expected goals difference (npXG) per game to win the championship; This means that you consistently create many more chances than you admit.
Only Arsenal have achieved this consistency so far this season and Chelsea need to improve defensively.
Spanish left-back Marc Cucurella, who has beaten Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this term, said his team’s inconsistency against fewer opponents was a problem.
“I think we lost points against teams you expect to win this season,” the defender said.
Interestingly, Arsenal’s outstanding defense threatens Chelsea’s record of most clean sheets (25) and fewest clean sheets (15) in the Premier League, achieved under Jose Mourinho in 2005.
“You see they didn’t concede a goal,” Maresca said. “Defensively they are the best team in the league and the Champions League, so they are the team to beat.”
There are obvious stylistic similarities between the two teams; Both play a patient style of possession that involves high pressing.
Another important difference is the quality of the set pieces. Arsenal are the league’s best attacking set-piece team, with 10 goals in 12 matches and the highest xG of 7.88. Chelsea, meanwhile, sit second with eight set-piece goals and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.
Despite conceding just one fewer set-piece goal than Chelsea – four versus three – Arsenal have the second-best xG (2.04) in defending such situations, while Chelsea are second-worst (6.40). Despite last season’s improvement, Arsenal could still face problems when they come to town.
Chelsea also need to overcome their weakening record against Arsenal on Sunday; They have won just once in their last 11 Premier League matches. The Gunners are also unbeaten in six matches at Stamford Bridge.
