China aims to show global leadership with Iran war diplomacy. US appears uninterested
This is China’s latest attempt to take a more prominent role in global affairs, as the United States appears uninterested in Beijing’s efforts; but this may turn out to be more rhetorical than substantive.
“War with Iran is a priority for all countries inside and outside the region,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. “This is an opportunity China will not miss to demonstrate its leadership and diplomatic initiative.”
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Danny Russel, a former top U.S. diplomat, called China’s diplomacy “performative” and compared the five-point proposal to end the Iran war with a 12-point plan for Ukraine in 2023 that was “full of platitudes but never implemented.”
“The narrative is that China is a principled and responsible advocate for peace, while Washington is reckless, aggressive and indifferent to the costs to others,” said Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “What we see from China is messaging, not mediation.”
Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said China had been working “tirelessly for peace” since the beginning of the war.
How does the USA view China’s diplomacy?
According to US officials, the Trump administration does not seem to be keen on the possibility of Chinese mediation.
The United States has soured on third-party mediation efforts and has little interest in boosting China’s international reputation or giving it an opening to claim success in the Middle East because they are not authorized to publicly discuss potential diplomatic options, three U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said.
One of the officials described the administration’s stance on the China-Pakistan effort as “agnostic,” neither approval nor disapproval; But all three emphasized that the situation could change if President Donald Trump weighs in before his scheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It could be an incentive for Beijing to see the war calm down before Trump leaves for China in mid-May. Trump postponed the trip planned for the end of March, citing the demands of the war.
“There is no guarantee that Trump will not postpone his visit to China again if the war continues,” Sun said.
The war witnessed a major escalation on Friday when Iran shot down two US military aircraft for the first time since the war began five weeks ago. A few days after Trump announced in a national address that the United States had “defeated and completely destroyed most of Iran,” he told NBC News that it would not affect negotiations with Iran.
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Beijing counts the pain of closing the Strait of Hormuz
China, which has diversified its energy sources and reduced dependence on fossil fuels, is, for now, more insulated from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz than other countries.
China relies on Iran for just 13 percent of its oil imports, and Beijing is working with Tehran to allow Chinese-flagged ships to pass through the critical waterway, where Iran’s bottleneck has caused energy prices to soar. China also has large strategic oil reserves.
While China is positioning itself to cushion short-term shocks, analysts say Beijing is concerned about a protracted war and has an interest in trying to end it.
“The escalation of the conflict will begin to harm China’s interests,” Russel said. “As China’s growth model is export-led, prolonged energy shocks and transport disruptions will mean more expensive inputs and weaker global demand, hurting its fragile economy.”
In addition to not wanting to see a long war, “China welcomes the opportunity to argue that it is helping to alleviate a crisis that America created, especially as the Trump administration’s lack of a thoughtful strategy to contain the consequences becomes more apparent,” said Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy advisor on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group.
Also read: China says it hit ‘root cause’ of US-Israeli Starit of Hormuz disruption
China entered a diplomatic frenzy
After the war began, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his counterparts from Russia, Oman, Iran, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He told Iran that he valued China’s friendship, called on Israel to halt its military activities, and expressed that China would be willing to play a role in the pursuit of peace.
Last week, Wang hosted his Pakistani counterpart in Beijing, where he outlined his five-point proposals and called for an end to hostilities and the reopening of the strait.
Liu said he had more than 20 phone calls with regional foreign ministers and a special envoy visited several countries in the region to promote peace and reduce tensions.
China’s foreign ministry said Wang sought support for China’s plan from European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who said it represented “broad, international consensus.” Wang told Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan that stopping the hostilities was the most urgent issue.
Wang also spoke with Bahraini foreign minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani this week to explain why China opposes Bahrain’s proposal to allow the UN to open the Strait of Hormuz with military force. Wang said the U.N. Security Council’s actions should help ease tensions “instead of supporting illegal acts of war, fueling the fire even further.”
China and Russia have argued that the United States or other countries could use a U.N.-backed mechanism to escalate the deadly war, according to a U.N. diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks.
Both countries appear to have a less urgent need to fully open the strait. While China can pay to transport some of its ships, Russia benefits from the high price of oil, its main export.
Hoping to avoid a veto, Bahrain has significantly watered down its proposal to authorize defensive (rather than offensive) action to ensure ships can pass safely through the strait. Voting has been postponed until next week.
China says a ceasefire is necessary to resolve the Strait issue. But his plan with Pakistan was met with mostly silence from the US
One US official said the plan was difficult to evaluate because it was less a road map to peace than a vague call for respect for international law, diplomacy and the role of the UN.
