China box office isn’t Hollywood kingmaker it used to be. Here’s why
Posters for the films are displayed at a cinema in Shanghai on August 31, 2025.
VCG | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Hollywood has lost one of its most lucrative theatrical markets. It’s unclear if he can regain that.
The Chinese box office was once a coveted destination for American-made films; So much so that studios were producing films that would appeal directly to this international audience. But in the post-pandemic cinema landscape, Hollywood has failed to deliver the robust ticket sales it once saw for its biggest blockbusters, and weakening relationships with Chinese theaters are at least partly to blame.
US-China Film AgreementThe agreement signed between the two governments in 2012 guaranteed that 34 US films would be released in China each year. This agreement expired in 2017 and was never renewed or renegotiated. At the same time, China began expanding domestic film production and imposing blackout dates to encourage viewing of its own produced films.
Added to the strict censorship policies of the China Film Administration and the recent political tensions between the USA and China, Hollywood films faced many obstacles to be distributed in the country after Covid.
“I think there’s a kind of enthusiasm about the largest market in the world and thinking that China is a place that is always creating a bigger market for the United States. [intellectual property] “It’s not true,” said Aynne Kokas, a professor at the University of Virginia and author of “Hollywood Made in China.”
“[There are] There are restrictions on the market in various ways; these are primarily about content control, and not just content control in terms of censorship, but also in terms of party control of distribution channels,” Kokas said.
He said the film bureau “will open and close its distribution arms according to the needs of the market.” If local Chinese films do well, the country will limit the distribution reach of foreign films. If there are gaps in movie screenings or if screenings are not selling many tickets, this will open up the market.
In 2019, nine films in the US each grossed more than $100 million at the Chinese box office. Disney Marvel Studio’s “Avengers: Endgame” grossed more than $600 million in the region, according to Comscore data.
But in the past five years combined, only 10 American films have grossed more than $100 million in China; only two have exceeded $200 million.
The exception is Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which reached a record-breaking $650 million in the country after its 2025 release.
Box office analysts told CNBC that this success was likely an anomaly, and that studios and Wall Street shouldn’t expect a sudden resurgence in American-made ticket sales in the region even as major franchises launch ahead of the key summer movie season.
Market nuances
Despite its huge audience potential, something that performs well in the US is not guaranteed to do well in China.
“There is not necessarily a one-to-one correlation between popular IP in the US and popular IP in China,” Kokas said.
In some cases, this is due to Chinese audiences’ lack of nostalgia. Kokas noted that this situation increased even more after the Star Wars sequel trilogy was introduced to the region in 2015. It failed because the original and prequel trilogies’ previous films had never been released in China, so the subsequent films lacked established fanbase support.
Distribution experts told CNBC that the Chinese film bureau and its audience tend to gravitate towards visual and apolitical films.
Films that have performed well in the region since the pandemic include entries from the Fast and Furious saga, Jurassic World films, and installments from the Godzilla and King Kong series.
Despite the recent stagnation in ticket sales for Chinese films, studios are not deterred from releasing games in the region. A distribution expert told CNBC that China remains a huge theatrical opportunity for American-made films.
““China remains a key component in any international strategy for U.S.-based studios because there is potential for hundreds of millions of dollars to be made here due to the undeniable appetite for major Hollywood films in the region,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.
Universal’s “Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is the next film to arrive in the country from the US, opening in theaters this weekend.
The first film in the series, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” grossed more than $1.3 billion worldwide in 2023, but only $25 million of that total came from China.
A distribution expert told CNBC that console games like Nintendo’s Super Mario series aren’t as prevalent in the region, meaning nostalgia for $575 million in domestic ticket sales isn’t a major factor in China.
Meanwhile, in Japan, where Super Mario is a cultural icon, the film grossed $102 million.
Still, the Chinese market helps boost the film’s overall shipping volume and has the potential to be a huge success. That’s why studios are still keen to have games released theatrically in the region.
Also on the list to be distributed in China this year is Universal’s “Michael.” Warner Bros.’ “Mortal Kombat II” and Disney’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”
Due to China’s strict censorship policies, films must be completed and screened by the film bureau before being released for distribution. For this reason, the history of Hollywood in China is not as solid as that of domestic cinema.
However, box office analysts say Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” and Warner Bros.’ Productions like these are waiting. In addition to “Dune: Part Three”, Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” will also be released in China this year.
