Here are the 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
We are entering a shortened trading week due to the holidays. But don’t let this fool you. There’s enough on the calendar to fill a week. Earnings season is well underway. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (albeit a bit outdated) is coming to an end. And we are having our first Monthly Meeting of the year. 1. Non-portfolio earnings: There will be many reports to follow outside the club. Industry pioneers such as 3M, Netflix, United Airlines, Johnson & Johnson, GE Aerospace, Intel and SLB, to name a few, are set to report next week. Even though these names are not in the Club, each of them can provide insight into various sectors of the economy. For example, 3M will inform us about industrial activity and production demand. GE Aerospace on Thursday may talk about the ramifications of President Donald Trump’s calls for increased defense spending and how much commercial air travel is happening, related to our positions at Boeing and Honeywell. Same for United Airlines on Wednesday. Additionally, United will offer a window into consumer health and sentiment about the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, on Thursday, Intel will provide insight into semiconductor demand at the start of the quarter, well before data center giants Broadcom and Nvidia in our portfolio report later in the earnings season. Perhaps Intel will also provide an update on its custom CPU collaboration with Nvidia, which was announced with great fanfare in September. In the oilpatch, SLB and its rival Halliburton, arms dealers of drilling companies, will shed light on energy demand and infrastructure dynamics after the US captures Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. What these companies say about their customers’ activity levels can help us understand where energy prices will go in 2026. Last week’s earnings report from chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. perfectly illustrated why investors should keep an eye on stocks outside their portfolios. After TSMC announced it would increase its capital budget due to strong demand, the entire chip group received bids, from chip designers like Nvidia to supply chain players like Club’s Qnity Electronics. Investors are always looking for “reads” that will enhance their understanding of the markets in which their portfolio companies operate. You’ll find plenty of them this week. 2. Gains in our portfolio: Both Club stocks that report this week will report on Thursday. Procter & Gamble is in first place before the opening bell and we wouldn’t be surprised if the headline figures disappoint. As Jim Cramer noted on Friday’s Morning Briefing, we know that October and November (two-thirds of the P&G quarter) were impacted by the government shutdown, which led to a delay in SNAP benefits, leading to weakness at the beginning of the quarter. The problem is that it is not clear to us whether Wall Street estimates accurately reflect this. The consensus revenue estimate of $22.31 billion is just 1.2% below what it was on Sept. 30, the day before the shutdown began. Ultimately, what P&G has to say about post-shutdown dynamics and the ongoing quarter (P&G’s third quarter of fiscal 2026) will be the most important factor in determining where the stock goes from here. This is P&G’s first quarter with new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar at the helm, and we’re excited about what he can bring to the Tide, Crest and Dawn family. Later that day, Trump’s pressure campaign on the credit card industry added a major wrinkle to Capital One’s after-hours earnings report. For now, it is too early to say whether Trump’s demand for a one-year 10 percent interest rate ceiling will come true. But it still looks like it will be a big topic of conversation on the conference call. Many of the big bank CEOs who made news last week criticized this. Now, an influential industry player, Capital One’s Richard Fairbank, will get the chance to get a feel for what this means for the industry. Some good news, at least for Capital One shareholders, is that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Fox Business on Friday that the administration is in contact with major banks to create a new credit card product to appease Trump. That would be a much narrower outcome than Trump’s initial threat, which sent Capital One shares tumbling 6.4% on Monday. When it comes to Capital One’s actual financials, key metrics beyond headline revenue and earnings include default and payment rates because they reflect the health of the consumer. More general comments about spending habits and debt levels are also very important. Given that private consumption accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, knowing where the consumer stands is absolutely vital to how one thinks about the market more broadly. Finally, management’s comments regarding 2026 Discovery integration plans and share buyback activities will also be interesting. 3. Economic data: The biggest economic announcement of the week is on Thursday. That’s when we get the November personal spending and income report, which includes the core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Although the PCE provides clues about the Fed’s future interest rate moves, it is important to remember that this is a delayed report. So investors would be better served focusing on what management teams are saying during earnings conference calls rather than basing investment decisions on a high-level report that’s now been stale for nearly two months. Another development on our radar is Wednesday’s December pending home sales report. A better-than-expected report on the number of pending home sales should bode well for the economy. Housing is the services, appliances, furniture, etc. that come with the purchase of a new home. It’s one of those industries that punches above its weight thanks to all the other acquisitions. Home Depot is the stock in our portfolio that contributes most to the housing market and mortgage rates. As a reminder, markets are on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. It was opened in honor of the day. We will also be hosting our first Monthly Meeting of the year on Thursday, so be sure to submit any questions you may have for Jim and Jeff to answer during the call. Next week, Monday, January 19th US stock market closes Tuesday, January 20th Before the bell: DR Horton, Inc. (DHI), 3M Company (MMM), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), US Bancorp (USB), Fastenal Co. (FAST), Peoples Bancorp Inc (PEBO), KeyCorp (KEY) After the bell: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), United Airlines (UAL), Progress Software Corp. (PRGS) Home Sales Report Pending Wednesday, January 21 at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Ally Financial (ALLY), Halliburton Company (HAL), Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW), TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL), Prologis, Inc. (PLD), Teledyne Technologies Inc. (TDY), Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) After the bell: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI), Banc of California, Inc. (BANC), Banner Corporation (BANR), CACI International, Inc. (CACI) Thursday, Jan. 22 PCE Index 8:30 a.m. ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11 a.m. ET Before the bell: Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (FCX), GE Aerospace (GE), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN), Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI), Abbott (ABT), McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) After the bell: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Intel Corp. (INTC), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG), Alcoa, Inc. (AA), CSX Corp. (CSX) Friday, January 23 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Final), 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: SLB (SLB), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH), Comerica, Inc. (CMA), Ericsson (ERIC) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, AVGO, COF and AVGO. See here for a full list of stocks.) When you subscribe to the CNBC Investment Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trading alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable foundation’s portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trading alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCLAIMERS. NO CIVIL OBLIGATIONS OR DUTIES EXIST OR SHALL BE RESULTING FROM YOUR RECEIVING ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULT OR PROFIT CAN BE GUARANTEED.
