China’s contraceptive tax begins amid severe population decline concerns

China will impose a 13 percent value-added tax on birth control methods as of January 1 and will also exempt child care services from the same tax. Officials say the move is part of a broader effort to increase births as the country faces a steady population decline. According to BBC and Associated Press.

The tax overhaul, announced late last year, removes exemptions that have been in place since 1994, when China still implemented its decades-old one-child policy.

Besides the new tax on birth control methods such as condoms and birth control pills, the Chinese government is exempting child care, marriage-related services and elderly care from value added tax (VAT), the BBC reported.

Struggling with its aging population and stagnant economy, Beijing is putting pressure on young people to marry and have children. Official figures show China’s population has declined for three consecutive years, with around 9.54 million babies born in 2024.

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That’s roughly half the number of births recorded a decade ago when China began easing restrictions on family size, according to national statistics cited by the BBC and AP.

China’s population pressure has been increasing for years. Births fell from about 14.7 million in 2019 to about 9.5 million in 2024. In 2023, India will officially overtake China as the world’s most populous country.

The new tax on birth control methods has caused ridicule and concern in China. Some users on social media joked about stocking up on condoms before prices rise, while others argued that the cost of birth control was trivial compared to the expense of raising a child, the BBC reported.

“I have one child and I don’t want any more,” Daniel Luo, a 36-year-old resident of Henan province, told the BBC. He said the price increase would not change family plans and compared it to small increases in subway fares that do not change daily behavior.

Others worry that the policy could have unintended consequences. Rosy Zhao, who lives in the central city of Xi’an, told the BBC that making birth control more expensive could lead students or people in financial difficulties to take risks. He called this the most dangerous potential outcome of the policy.

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China reversed its controversial one-child policy in 2015. (Adek Berry)

Health experts echoed those concerns in interviews with the AP, warning that high prices could reduce access to birth control and contribute to an increase in unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. China has recorded more than 670,000 cases of syphilis and more than 100,000 cases of gonorrhea in 2024, according to data from the National Administration for Disease Control and Prevention.

China also reports some of the highest abortion figures in the world. Between 2014 and 2021, authorities recorded between 9 and 10 million abortions per year, according to the National Health Commission. China stops publishing abortion data in 2022.

Demographers and policy analysts remain skeptical that taxing birth control methods will meaningfully increase birth rates. Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told the BBC that the idea that high condom prices would influence fertility decisions was overthinking the policy.

According to figures cited by the BBC, value-added tax revenue, which totaled nearly $1 trillion last year, constitutes approximately 40% of China’s tax collection.

Henrietta Levin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described the move as symbolic, reflecting Beijing’s attempt to lift dramatically low fertility figures. He also warned that many incentives and subsidies depend on state governments that are already heavily indebted, raising questions about whether they can adequately fund the measures.

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A family of three takes a selfie at a shopping mall in Beijing as the Chinese government considers options to increase the birth rate. (Yang Yuran/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)

Public health experts interviewed by the AP said the policy could disproportionately affect women who bear the most responsibility for birth control in China. Research published by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2022 found that about 9% of couples use condoms, 44.2% rely on intrauterine devices, and 30.5% rely on female sterilization. Male sterilization is 4.7%.

Some women say the tax has reignited anger over the long history of government involvement in reproductive decisions. The Communist Party enforced its one-child policy through fines, penalties and, in some cases, forced abortions from roughly 1980 to 2015, according to the AP. Failure to allow household registration of children born outside the policy sometimes excluded them from citizenship.

“This is a disciplinary tactic, a management of the female body and my sexual desires,” Zou Xuan, a 32-year-old teacher from Jiangxi province, told the AP.

Concerns about greater government intervention have also surfaced in recent months. The BBC reported that women in some provinces received questions from local officials about their menstrual cycles and pregnancy plans. A health bureau in Yunnan province said this information was needed to identify pregnant mothers; Critics say the move risks alienating the families Beijing hopes to encourage.

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Levin warned that such approaches could undermine public trust. He told the BBC: ” [Communist] The party cannot help but involve itself in every decision it cares about. So in some ways he becomes his own worst enemy.”

As the government changes policies once used to limit population growth, experts warn that reversing decades-old demographic trends will be much harder than raising prices at the till, especially after years of policies shaping whether families can have children.