China’s new global playbook —from exporter to investor

This report is from this week’s CNBC newsletter The China Connection, bringing you insights and analysis into what’s driving the world’s second-largest economy. You can subscribe Here.

From global exporter to investor, China is moving into regions the United States is eyeing.

As US President Donald Trump intensified US influence on Venezuela, Iran and Greenland this year, one of the immediate concerns of the Chinese side was its own policy. local investments.

There are significant investments in factories and technology. As China’s trade surplus rises to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, Beijing’s agreements and contracts with China Belt and Road countries Attempt rose to new heights. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa are key regions for the initiative, which is seen as a conduit for China to exert global influence.

The Financial Times’ FDI Intelligence survey predicted 2026: The biggest source will be China In 2026, it will be ahead of the United Arab Emirates and then India in foreign direct investments. The United States is tied with Saudi Arabia for fourth place.

The composition of this investment is also changing. More China’s overseas investments inside technology and productionThis is partly because tariffs are pushing Chinese electric car companies to localize production abroad.

Global businesses and leaders are also curious about how China’s technology is developing.

Over the past six months, Beijing-based autonomous delivery vehicle company Neolix has begun accepting global visitors, including logistics businesses and the French Ministry of Transport, Will Zhao, Neolix’s chief executive, told me last week.

“2025 was the year we really started to have those kinds of contacts with global potential partners,” he said, noting that those partners include consultants or lawyers working with local authorities on autonomous vehicle regulation.

“Many countries are looking for our investments in production,” Zhao said.

neolix Obtained business license in UAE late last year and announced a strategic alliance with a company Portuguese mobility company earlier this month. Zhao said the company plans to deploy more than 10,000 autonomous delivery vehicles outside China this year and enter three new countries, ideally in Europe.

Global investment firm KKR says trade in Asia is next year’s “mega theme” in 2026 report macro view. “For us at KKR, this is a scalable, secular trend with real investment potential spanning logistics, manufacturing, consumer markets and digital capabilities.”

KKR said China is increasing its market share not only through exports but also by establishing local operations in countries such as Vietnam.

“One of the emerging benefits for the region is the increasing frequency of countries trading in renminbi, a trend that has accelerated post-Covid,” the report said.

This trend was on the rise even before Trump’s latest round of global tariffs.

By 2024, 60% of Asian trade was already taking place in the region; KKR projects 8% growth over the next few years. A key factor, according to the report, is that the region’s more than 800 million millennials are about to reach an age where they will spend more.

Underscoring the shift in global trade, Southeast Asia has become Beijing’s largest trading partner, helping China’s global exports grow 5.5% last year despite a 20% drop in shipments to the United States due to the trade war.

US logistics giant FedEx also said its CEO Raj Subramaniam:reglobalization,” according to his recent interview with the New York Times.

Subramaniam said FedEx has opened facilities in Istanbul, Bangalore and Dublin in the last six months. “We made different moves within Asia. A new platform in Osaka.”

In a world shaken by US-China tensions, such decisions are not taken lightly. Subramaniam is also President of the US-China Business CouncilHe meets regularly with Chinese policymakers.

Global trade is changing It also has an impact in China.

In a presentation to reporters last week, Cui Shoujun, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, noted that companies are hiring more foreign affairs graduates; These graduates would mostly go to government jobs just 10 years ago.

If trade tensions are to continue, Chinese companies are using human talent and factory expansion to adapt.

of hong kong Hang Seng Index It is up over 0.3%, bringing its year-to-date gains to 3.7%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index closed nearly flat, gaining 0.09%, and ended the year 2.01% higher.