Rubio odds for GOP 2028 nominee close to overtaking Vance on Kalshi

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is increasingly likely to become the GOP nominee in 2028, according to traders on prediction market platforms.

While Vice President J.D. Vance is still favored by Kalshi investors, his odds have fallen from 50% on Jan. 1 to just 33% on Monday. Meanwhile, Rubio’s odds have increased from around 12% to 30%.

Vance was seen as the heir apparent to President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, given his high-profile role in the administration as officially second-in-command.

But Trump reportedly has doubts about whether he considers Vance his successor; as detailed in a recent report. New York Times throughout the weekend. The Times said Vance brought up his initial opposition to the war in Iran while Trump was considering his candidacy.

Rubio’s chances improved throughout the year, but rose sharply with the launch of major military operations, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January and the start of the war with Iran in late February.

Rubio also gave a short impromptu speech in the White House press room in May about his hopes for America. viral short form videoQuestions are being raised about what the cabinet member’s plans are for 2028.

While Rubio’s role in the military conflicts boosted his chances of becoming the Republican nominee, the same conflicts also hurt the party’s chances of winning the presidency as Trump’s approval ratings have fallen since the beginning of the year. The GOP’s odds of winning the White House in 2028 fell to 39 percent on Monday from 45 percent before the war with Iran.

Traders at Polymarket give Vance a 31% chance of becoming the Republican nominee in 2028, with Rubio close behind at just under 27%.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.