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Citrini Research sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they found.

Citrini Research, a financial research publication that gained attention with its doomsday AI report in February, sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz to report on conditions on the ground. The report suggests that the strait may not be as closed as markets have priced.

According to a Publish on the Citrini Research Substack page And Videos sent to XThe analyst, nicknamed “Analyst No. 3,” reached the strait in March and found that the satellite and ship tracking data relied on by the market was undercounting the “dark fleet” of ships operating in the area.

The report stated that the ships spoofed location data and changed ownership names to conceal their movements through Iran’s pricing system and ensure their own security.

The result, Citrini found, was that the market missed a large portion of Iranian-directed shipping traffic across the strait.

Read more: What could an extended war with Iran mean for gas prices?

“We thought we would leave with the impression that the strait was either closed or open,” Citrini wrote in the public section of the customer report. “We were also very aware that this trip might end in failure and we wouldn’t learn anything.”

The report continues: “There was no shortage of alpha on the Bosphorus as we spoke, including concrete information about the new rules and how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard decides who can and cannot cross.”

Citrini Research said its on-the-ground analyst said:We are now back safe and sound in the free world.”

Oil prices rose at the open of futures trading on Sunday, then moved modestly overnight. At 11:15 a.m. on Monday, international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) was up 0.4% to $109 per barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) futures were trading around $112 per barrel, up 0.4%.

The latest data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that over the weekend, 21 ships passed through the Strait of HormuzThis marks the highest volume of traffic on the critical waterway since the start of the war. While most of those ships were Iranian, ships also passed through from China, Japan and Iraq, among other countries that have accepted Iran’s pricing regime, according to Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee.

“From a practical standpoint, passage through the Strait of Hormuz increasingly depends on Iran’s bargaining terms and tolerance,” JPMorgan Chase commodity strategists wrote in a client note Monday.

“If nation states make ancillary arrangements to ensure safe passage, it would be an acknowledgment that Iran has meaningful control over one of the world’s central energy arteries,” they added. “If more countries make their own safe passage agreements with Iran for their tankers, Iran’s influence will strengthen.”

According to data from Goldman Sachs, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below normal levels. · Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Although Citrini’s detailed findings have not been made public, many people Excerpts from analyst report was widely distributed. In one of them, the analyst describes swimming in the Bosphorus and interacting with smuggling ships; because the drones “did not appear to make subtle distinctions between an incompatible tanker and a forty-year-old boat.”

“So I thought, if I were here, I might try this,” the analyst wrote. “I jumped into the water and swam away. Cigar in my mouth. My testimony is above.”

One quote reads: “Then the smuggling boats started passing us… and then one of them turned and pulled directly towards us at high speed from the direction of Iran.” “For five seconds I was sure it was all over. The 72 pieces of Emirati in the barrel were the only thing on my mind.

“As it turned out, it wasn’t the IRGC. Just another smuggler… He handed me his cigarette and I handed him my cigar, and we looked at each other across the gap between two boats in the middle of the most contentious waterway in the world and nodded and smiled and neither of us said a word.”