Climate ‘coming for our coffee’ without farm adaptation
Top coffee-growing countries are being sweltered by an extra 50 days a year of temperatures hot enough to damage the beloved plants responsible for the morning brew.
Climate Central’s research suggests human-caused climate change is contributing to rising latte prices around the world, including in coffee-obsessed Australia.
The “bean belt” countries (Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia), responsible for 75 percent of global supply, experienced an average of 57 more days of coffee-damaging heat than would be expected without climate change.
The two dominant coffee plants – arabica and Robusta – are sensitive to extreme heat; Temperatures above 30C are considered extremely harmful for the former and sub-optimal for the latter.
At high temperatures, crops are subjected to stress, which can reduce yield and bean quality and leave plants more prone to diseases.
Nearly every coffee region is experiencing additional extremely hot days, said Kristina Dahl, the Climate Center’s vice president of science.
“Climate change is coming for our coffee,” Dr Dahl said.
“Over time, these impacts can spill over from farms to consumers, all the way to the quality and cost of your daily beer.”
Drought in Brazil is already negatively impacting bean supplies and causing wholesale prices to rise.
Arabica and Robusta coffee bean prices nearly doubled from 2023 to 2025, with prices reaching an all-time high in February 2025, according to International Coffee Organization figures.
Higher prices of raw beans mean a more expensive cup of coffee in Australia; But the final price tag also includes wages, rent, energy and other costs that businesses say are high.
Nationwide, the cost of an average flat white rose nearly 10 percent between 2023 and 2025, according to Square’s digital payment figures from cafes.
In addition to fueling coffee-damaging heat, climate change can also alter rainfall patterns and make pest and disease management more challenging.
Global warming is linked to the spread of the coffee berry borer, one of the crop’s most notorious pests, to high-altitude regions.
Coffee farmers, who are predominantly small-scale operators, have methods they can use to adapt to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
But the Climate Center analysis says small-scale farmers receive only a small fraction of the financing they need to adapt to climate change.
Producers like Chef Rafael Mopimop Suru are successfully adopting sustainable coffee farming methods.
The farm, on the Sete de Setembro Indigenous Land in Rondonia, Brazil, uses agroforestry (planting crops and animals alongside trees) to produce Amazon Robusta coffee.
Planting trees along with crops helps protect them from extreme heat and rain and also produces leaf litter, which fertilizes the soil and traps moisture.
The agroforestry operation has received little funding for climate adaptation.
“We never had access to village credit,” Mr. Mopimop Suru said.
“There is so much bureaucracy, they come here, talk and then leave without understanding our reality.”
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