Coalition voters flirt with ‘anti-woke’ One Nation

With concerns about immigration high and a broader “anti-woke” base than in previous years, One Nation is attracting older Australians and disaffected coalition voters as support rises to record levels.

And perhaps more importantly, party officials were encouraged by new members across the country, leading to the opening of more branches.

The resurgence of the party, founded and led by Queensland senator Pauline Hanson, was confirmed by a pair of polls with 15 per cent support within days.

This means one in seven voters told both Essential and Newspoll they would vote for the small, right-wing party if the election were held.

This also represents a new milestone for the party in its 28-year history, well above the 6.4 percent it received nationally in the May election.

The figure is not an outlier at all; fellow pollsters Redbridge (14 per cent), YouGov, Resolve and Roy Morgan (all 12 per cent) also put the party’s support in double figures.

“This is definitely an increase,” YouGov polling director Amir Daftari told AAP.

At the heart of the change is the coalition’s poll shift.

The primary vote for the coalition under moderate leader Sussan Ley has fallen from 32 percent in the May election to between 24 and 29 percent in the latest polls.

YouGov analysis shows that of the support the coalition has lost since the election – voters who backed the coalition in the 2025 election but now plan to direct their votes elsewhere – 54 per cent plan to vote for One Nation.

“They tend to be older; a third of them are 65 and over,” Mr. Daftari said.

“This is basically a protest vote against their own party… it captures the desperation and decline of the coalition.

“If there was an election tomorrow, One Nation’s votes would surpass the Greens.”

One Nation’s 2025 election result was its largest lower house vote share since 1998, when Senator Hanson, who won the Queensland seat of Oxley as an unendorsed Liberal in 1996, led the party to 8.4 per cent nationally.

At the time, One Nation was almost exclusively a lightning rod for discontent over immigration and Indigenous issues.

The party now believes there is a broader movement, and a review of its public statements since the May election reveals interest in other populist causes.

The most common topics in journalists’ inboxes are trans rights, renewable energy (especially net zero targets) and opposition to immigration, including Gaza refugees.

One Nation staff believe they benefited from staunch stances at the polls against immigration reduction and climate energy targets: two issues on which the coalition held public post-election debates.

“We are firm on our policy, they are clashing,” one insider told AAP, admitting the figures were “a pretty clear response to the coalition’s lack of leadership”.

A News poll on Tuesday confirmed many Australians are confronted by immigration, with 10 per cent wanting more immigrants and 64 per cent wanting fewer.

The problems with One Nation’s policy proposal mirror those addressed in the US by MAGA torchbearer Donald Trump, in the UK by Nigel Farage’s Reform and Winston Peters’ New Zealand First.

Demonstrating the Trump connection, Ms Hanson, who is not in parliament during the current session week, was seen at a Halloween party at the US president’s Florida residence.

These are far-right positions across the political spectrum.

The parties themselves reject these labels, saying their policies are “sensible” and aimed at the mainstream.

Sharron Duncan, one of One Nation’s best-performing candidates this year, said “anti-woke” was a “fair representation” of her positioning.

“The average Australian is fed up with some of the policies of the major parties and they are looking for a different response,” he said.

The party also sensed a shift among older Australians.

“The over 55 age group shows the biggest movement towards Pauline and One Nation,” he said.

“Older people have been around longer and seen a lot more… especially around social norms that they want to see common sense prevail.”

Ms Duncan was the party’s 2025 Maranoa candidate and one of two One Nation candidates who came second in the electorate, along with Stuart Bonds in the Hunter.

He was well beaten by National Leader David Littleproud but may try his luck next time, especially in a scenario where Mr Littleproud is no longer leader of the regional party.

Next time, candidates will benefit from a strengthened party machine and volunteer base.

Party spokesman Richard Henderson said the doubling of One Nation’s membership had allowed it to open branches across the country.

This included branches in Albury, Ms Ley’s constituency, and in the Nationals heartland towns of Tamworth and Wagga Wagga.

Mr Henderson said growth in Tasmania was 300 per cent, with Senator Hanson’s daughter Lee narrowly missing out on a Senate seat in the May poll.

While it is clear that One Nation is enjoying a moment in the sun, Mr Daftari also warned that the party was falling short of its vote average of around eight to nine per cent in the last election.

“People were considering voting for them, but very few did,” he said.