Strait of Hormuz back in focus amid possible U.S. intervention in Iran
The Strait of Hormuz has once again come under the spotlight as a possible US intervention in Iran increases the risk of Tehran disrupting one of the world’s most critical energy transit points.
US President Donald Trump is considering a range of options against Iran as he cracks down on protests at home, according to multiple media reports on Sunday.
Industry experts have warned that a military conflict could provoke Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman and through which nearly a third of the world’s seaborne crude oil flows.
“An interruption in the Strait of Hormuz could cause a global oil and gas crisis,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee; especially considering the “desperate and ill-advised ways the current Iranian regime could go if they were backed into a corner where their power and lives were at risk.”
About 13 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day in 2025, accounting for about 31% of the global seaborne crude oil flow, according to data provided by market intelligence firm Kpler. The risk of blockage of the waterway also emerged during the flare-up between Washington and Tehran in June last year.
Since Iran’s production and exports are much larger than Venezuela’s, the global market will inevitably feel stronger ripple effects, said Kpler senior crude oil analyst Muyu Xu, adding that Chinese refiners may be forced to look for alternatives..
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, sees a 70% chance of a selective U.S. attack on Iran, saying unlike Venezuela, any military action involving Iran carries “materially higher risks” given the volume and transit exposure of its crude and refined product supply.
Analysts said oil prices could rise by double digits in an extreme escalation scenario where tankers cannot pass or energy infrastructure is damaged.
“Fear of a shutdown will cause the oil price to rise a few dollars per barrel, but a complete chokehold closure could result in an increase of $10 to $20 per barrel,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Kavonic predicts a “spike in oil prices” following any US attack on Iran, but this will soften if there are any signs that the disruption is temporary.
Global benchmark Brent was last around $63 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures remained at $59 per barrel.
Most analysts emphasize that any catastrophic outcomes still remain low-probability events.
Kpler’s Xu said Iran could always threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz but may not want to do so given the complexity of power dynamics in the region, and given the way the U.S. Navy patrols the region, Iran may not have the capacity to completely close it.
Even in a scenario where Iran attempts a temporary disruption, such as harassing tankers or briefly blocking transit, the physical impact on supply would be limited.
Kpler estimates that the oil market is currently trending towards oversupply, with an oversupply of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in January and over 3 million barrels per day in February and March.
Additionally, Kavonic said any shutdown would likely be met with a show of force by the United States and its allies to restore the flow.
Still, experts cautioned against drawing direct parallels between Iran and Venezuela, where the Trump administration used sanctions and seizures to pressure the Venezuelan regime before capturing President Nicolás Maduro.
Xu said it would be very difficult for the US to adopt a strategy against Iran similar to Venezuela because Iran is far from US territory and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is much more complex than in Latin America. “Moreover, Trump’s priority now appears to be consolidating US power in the Western Hemisphere.”
Lipow echoed that view, saying a Venezuelan-style playbook on Iran is more likely to include sanctions and sanctions rather than military occupation or attacks on infrastructure.
