Contributor: Tehran has only bad options. Trump and Netanyahu have golden opportunities

Tehran is not facing anything other than bad options after the US attack on the primary nuclear facilities in Iran’s Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Military Iran can increase the conflict by attacking US forces and allies in the region, as with missile attacks on Qatar and US bases in Iraq on Monday. Iran can also close the Hormuz Strait, withdraw from the Nuclear Soliferation Prevention Treaty, or even try to bomb a fast “rupture” run with its residual abilities. Each of these options guarantees an American military response that goes far beyond Iran’s nuclear program, and probably leads to a campaign that is probably the largest nightmare of the Islamic Republic, which is an intended campaign to overthrow the regime.

For this reason, Iran will continue to attack Israel by attacking Israel into a war of wear that Israel cannot meet, just as it is only hours after the US strike. Israel could climb the war faster and try to avoid extending losses.

Diplomaticly, Iran can return to negotiations, but reject the request for “unconditional surrender ğı that President Trump does not explain the conditions. In fact, these will probably include the completely dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and long -term controls, and more important pavements for its regional role. If Tehran rejects these demands, it will greatly increase the risk of more American military action against the regime aimed at military and civilian leaders and the infrastructure, not only nuclear fields.

Alternatively, he can actually participate in the demands of Trump, in which case the war ends directly and the war ends, but Iran loses its final security guarantor – nuclear capacity – and almost all leverages to get any concessions in more advanced international talks. The regime will also look so weak that the probability of an indigenous uprising will increase exponentially.

Whichever option of Iran chooses, the future of the Islamic Republic has never been so dangerous. Accordingly, the expectations of a dramatic positive transformation of the Middle East strategic landscape have never been so great.

Iran and Israel’s efforts to establish a regional coalition will be given a significant support for it to gain a greatly weakened Iran and a confidence in the region to re -revives us in order to include Iran. At least the dangers of proliferation in the Middle East can be greatly reduced. Israel – this time, albeit only with the critical American aid – will show the “initial doctrine” (that Israel decides to buy all the necessary tools to prevent nuclear weapons development). Türkiye, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the three largest proliferators in the region after Iran, will be very few reasons to follow nuclear weapons.

The fact that Russia and China fail to provide any practical support to Iran allies during the war constitute a complete contrast with the US and Israel, and during Russia’s strong support to Kremlin during the war in Ukraine, it dare for Iran. Moscow and Beijing will experience a significant decrease in the regional stances that accrue for Washington’s benefit. The Middle East will once again be accepted as a region of American domination that Russia and China should continue more carefully.

Fearful of the Middle East conflicts in the United States, the American attention today is the only nation – and Russia that approaches the economic influence of the US today. However, taking a direct role in this Iran-Israeli conflict Negative The American focus was focused on Moscow and Beijing. On the contrary, Washington significantly strengthened the global height compared to both countries. The US will hesitate to attack Taiwan because it shows that the US is willing to bomb the attackers against American allies.

An Israel, whose enemies are dramatic and no longer faced with an existential threat from Iran, will be in a much better position to make progress in the Palestinian issue, starting with the end of the war in Gaza. Indeed, it would not be difficult to assume that Trump could always make this a prerequisite for the support of Israel, Trump’s always processing. Saudi Israel’s normalization will return to the table.

Netanyahu has been prepared for this moment for 30 years for the opportunity to end the only threat of existence in which Israel continues to confront. From Reviled Leader Whose administration allowed the fiasco on October 7 And various anger in internal affairs now continues to be remembered as one of the great heroes of Israel. Moreover, a positive outcome of the war, considering the charges of corruption that he encounters, otherwise he can save the defeat of an election that seems to be an upcoming election defeat.

The bigger question is that Netanyahu, who has a deep understanding of Israel’s general strategic conditions that no one doubts, is not only to save Israel from an existential military threat, but also to use it to get rid of its own future as a Jewish and democratic state. Fordo may have gone; The Palestinians are staying. If it ended the Gaza War and led to the solution of the Palestinian issue, it would really strengthen its stance in history.

Both Netanyahu and Trump deserve the loan because they boldly act and they must be ready to continue to do so. This is not the time to be dissatisfied, it is time to continue to print the advantage. A classic cases of coercive diplomacy have dealt with the use of military force for diplomatic purposes and should see it to the end of the desired end: Iran reveals regional roles that reveal and limit its ability to develop nuclear capabilities for missile capabilities with an unprecedented intimacy control regime.

Even if there is a temporary ceasefire at the moment, it will not be easy to reach such an agreement. Unless Iranians really feel their backs on the wall, they are not likely to fully participate in American demands, and even then, they are unusual negotiators. Trump is Forte unknown permanence, focus and details will be drawn attention. A historical opening was made; Squander should not be.

Chuck Freilich, an former Israeli National Security Advisor, is a senior member at the Israeli National Security Research Institute. Colin. P. Clarke is a research director at Soufan Group, a New York -based security and intelligence consultancy company.