Contributor: The window to declare success in Iran is closing
“little tripHere’s the situation in Iran: President Trump should pursue what might politely be called a “declare victory and go to the airport” strategy.
You know the drill: Announce that we’ve rolled back Iran’s nuclear program by a decade, subjugated its navy, and reduced the Ayatollah to a fine mist. The job is done! Thank you for flying in the friendly skies and please return your seatbacks to the fully upright and locked position.
Don’t get me wrong. This “cut and run” routine is far from ideal. Trump will have signaled to the world that we cannot withstand any rebel resistance, empowering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to rule the country and possibly angering Israel in the process.
But his domestic political base will believe he has won, and fan service has always been his top political priority.
Moreover, when you enter a war without a coherent justification, clearly defined goals, or a credible exit strategy, you are lucky to get out of it. A useful result is no longer available; That ship has already sailed.
Speaking of which, as I write this we are heading towards the point of no return. Mining in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is currently trying to do, is its biggest trump card.
Using mines to shut down this narrow shipping lane, which contributes about 20% of the world’s oil supply along with natural gas and fertilizer, could lead to the disruption of the global economy, mass deaths and a situation in which the president can no longer maintain his reputation while cutting and running.
As a retired US Navy Admiral. James Stavridis writes“Iran has been planning an operation to close the Strait of Hormuz for decades and probably has more than 5,000 mines; a single hit could seriously damage a thin-skinned tanker.”
Yes, minefields can be cleared after they are laid. However Stavridis predicts It would take “weeks, if not a month or two” to clear the thousands of mines. He warns: “The global economy needs to be prepared for a month or two of shutdown.” (Complicating matters is the fact that Our special minesweepers have recently been decommissioned.)
Iranians are not stupid. They follow American politics. They know Trump’s pressure point is the S&P 500, not Tehran. A bad week on Wall Street makes him more nervous than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
Trump, whatever you say about him, is a transactional materialist who approaches geopolitics like a real estate developer approaches zoning disputes: What’s the angle, where’s the leverage, and can everyone get along already?
Unfortunately, the friends who rule Iran are religious fanatics who believe deeply, sincerely and somewhat worryingly in something bigger than quarterly economic indicators. Their strategic plan seems to consist of two options: survive (which they see as tantamount to victory) or die gloriously, insisting that this is what they wanted to do all along.
This makes their current behavior extremely logical.
The Iranian regime does not have much to lose in its current state. But they know exactly what Trump has to lose: His popularity and political legacy are now tied to the price of oil.
Releasing US strategic oil reserves would help to some extent, but it is not a long-term solution. And Iran claims that Trump will do what critics like to sum up as TACO — “Trump Will Always Be a Coward” — when the price at the pump starts to look like a luxury car payment for U.S. consumers.
Many American political observers agree. And it’s not just moderates or RINOs who make fun of this.
Former Speaker of the House of Representatives referring to the US military Newt Gingrich told Larry Kudlow From Fox Business: “They have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. I don’t care what it costs.”
Gingrich continued: “If they can’t keep it open, this war will actually be America’s defeat before long, because if the strait remains closed for a long time, the whole world, including the American people, will react to oil prices.”
Maybe US military to be Pull a delicate trick: keep our “Navy” in the area, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, clear all the mines laid, and prevent an unlucky tanker from being hit by a mine or even a drone or missile launched from the Iranian coast. The reason for this last risk some military analysts believe that Reopening the strait would require a land operation.
Imagine if the US managed to thread these needles. What happens next?
Complete and total surrender? Regime change? Are the boots on the ground?
Without a quick exit (say, tomorrow), we face two classic options of power politics: a delayed and more ignominious retreat or escalation.
And, historically speaking, American presidents are more likely to double-cross, with tragic consequences.
Matt K. Lewis is the author of:Filthy Rich Politicians” And “too stupid to fail.”
