Corporate America confident Trump tax cuts bill will pass: CFO survey
In recent years, something has been right about the Republican and Democratic Parties in Capitol Hill – despite the expansion of the Partisan division. It doesn’t matter how much they talk about the gap in expenditures and the restraining, which is never to stop any ruling side by passing through invoices that are not fully collected to balance the books of the federal government.
Will it be different this time?
Chief finance officials bet when it comes to President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful bill”.
The majority of the CFOs (86%) in the economy that participated in the survey by the CNBC (86%), significant changes will be made on the invoice, but this will be the law. And they expect Corporate Tax deductions to be in books because Trump’s temporary law by the 2017 Tax Law is terminated at the end of the year.
The CNBC CFO Council survey every three months is an example of the views of its members representing organizations throughout the economy. Q2 2025 survey received answers from 30 CFO.
President Trump demanded that the deputies to pass the bill until July 4, and this week he could not go on vacation until no deputy does this. Meanwhile, the members of the Assembly return to the significant changes made by the Senate in the version of the invoice, for example, temporarily extending some clean energy tax deductions. Sections in both rooms Excessive deductions in the treatment of social security network programs and salt taxes. And some Republican senators, led by Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, who calls the bill “immoral”, undermine the price diaper.
However, the Senate majority leader John Thune said that he forced to vote this week, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected the Senate to vote until Friday.
In the end, according to tax experts, there may be more time for MPs to iron their differences beyond July 4, and it will not be surprising that they take every opportunity to maximize their leverages. It wasn’t a long time ago when the bill was in the ropes of the home version since then and similar headings about the Senate effort emerged. Such words “Rebel” And “rebel” Still in a fragile Capitol Hill environment, the fate of the bill is on the headlines.
Congress, as the old statement went, has never been good to take his homework on time.
In this case, it is possible that the real final delivery date for the Wall Street-Mevzuat, in which the explored concerns and the prediction of the bill will be added, and the Bond traders pushed their weight in the form of higher interest rates this year, will not come until the “X History”. This is the date that the US cannot pay its debt to bond holders without lifting the debt ceiling.
The Congress attributed the fate of the legislation to the problem of debt ceiling – Sen. Some MPs including Rand Paul He called to rob. If it remains part of the legislature package, it is a plus to give deputies to pass the bill to pass the bill and to solve the differences and to continue to be vocal for their preferred legislative projects after the deadline of 4 July.
Bessent warned that the history of X may come earlier than expected this week (although the estimated date was in early August, but no more special date is given), but the government’s potential court decisions that require the reimbursement of tariff payments under emergency actions could raise that date. There is also a matter of budget mathematics, 2025 financially will end in September in September, so if the Congress did not make this law before then, the financial would have to start with the numbers of 2026.
Therefore, for the Congress to throw the box on the road, continue to negotiate and use the leverages they have, there is still a place in a narrowly divided Congress, and as a result it provides more leverage to each member on its votes.
Great risk for companies is not an increase in operating tax rates – the difference between the corporate tax deductions issued in 2017 to make them permanent instead of temporarily expanding them again. Senate Pushing for permanent cuts. In addition, legislation, bonus depreciation, interest expense and Full expenditure therapy for research and development costsIn recent years, a political football and the Congress has been subjected to attempts to revive it even with its two -party support.
Companies all year, despite President Trump’s comments on reducing commercial tax rates up to 15%, the current 2017 tax deductions will expire, the rate of the rate of increased rates at the end of the year-a permanent loss of extension loss would still be a win, he said. The tax reduction is certainly the tax reduction to help risk the business environment, especially since the tariffs are expected to serve as the head winds for the economy, especially in the coming months.
CFO research, the majority of CFOs (64%) tariffs will harm the economy, he said. Meanwhile, 100% of the CFOs participating in the survey said that the current policy uncertainty affects their ability to make job decisions and that about one -third was a “important effect”.
The threat of automatic tax increases, which will begin next year, will be what he sees as a self -injury at the beginning of 2026 in the GOP section of the corporate world, and according to the survey, businesses expect GOP to avoid it.
Note in other survey findings:
Bond Yields: As the congress fights tax cuts and explanation and some fed officials say that they are open to ratio deductions in July, CFOs are waiting for yield 10 -year treasury To remain high, 86% of the CFOs will remain between 4 and 5% at the year end. Currently, close to 4.3%and one -third of the CFOs expects the FED to be even higher until December, even if it is expected to receive at least a few deductions this year.
Inflation: Even if CFOs say that tariffs will focus on the economy, it is more optimistic about inflation appearance. Only a few CFO inflation is the biggest risk for inflation works, consumer demand and trade policy are more feared factors.
However, approximately 60% of the CFOs participating in the survey, FED’s earlier 2026 before the second half of the 2% of the target ratio, he says.
Exchange: When stocks return from the lowest levels of April, CFOs are like investors return to a consistent rise mode with recent years. In every quarter, we ask CFOs which sector will do the best in the next six months. In the last quarters, a rare division between CFOs and a relatively high percentage of participants refer to technology as the best sector for growth. This is now returned to the recently norm, saying that close to 60% of CFOs is the best positioned sector for growth.
However, the last volatility still focuses on the general market trust, almost half of the CFOs says they think it is more likely. S&P 500 For the first time, it falls below 5,500 without going above 6,500. The index flirts with the highest level of all time in recent operations.
Economy: A Stagnation, according to CFOs, more than half (55%), either in the second half of this year or 2026, they expect a decline. Most of this pessimism are directed towards the second half of this year, and probably depends on explanations about consumers they believe that they are not fully prepared for price story and CFO.
And when it comes to a bowel control over the general aspect of the economy, CFOs are close to equal division, saying that they are “a little optimistic” about the economy under half, but still a slight slope to the “pessimistic” camp.
In a recent call of the members of the CFO Council, a call that is planned to discuss the economic appearance of the Federal Reserve in the weeks when the FOMC’s FOMC came together to determine the wage policy, “My main concern, the consumer feels like the pricing of the tariffs, the impact of the tariffs, no matter how comfortable they are, how much they are so comfortable, how much they are, how much they are, how much they are. As they see how much they are relaxed, they will see these problems… My biggest concern is that they have seen the effect and they haven’t seen it yet. ”
“Considering that we have begun to see some cracks in economic data, I feel that the FED has a particularly difficult job at the moment, but the effects of tariffs may not actually come over time.”
Seventy -two percent of CFOs said tariffs will cause resurrection inflation.
