Could Andy Burnham return as an MP and challenge Starmer?
Speculation has increased that Andy Burnham could soon take over as Labor leader after a former minister quits his role as MP for the Greater Manchester seat.
Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne has previously denied intending to vacate the seat and said in September it was “not a route to No 10”. However, the former Minister of Labor, who was not in parliament due to sick leave, announced his resignation on Thursday afternoon.
His departure creates a potential pathway for the mayor of Greater Manchester to return to the House of Commons for the first time in nearly a decade, putting him in a position to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s position.
Some Labor MPs are understood to be quietly calling for the ‘King in the North’ to take over as prime minister, concerned about Labour’s poor position in the polls.
Just hours after the by-election was confirmed, Sir Keir warned MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges in an interview with Channel 4 News, saying: “Every minute we spend talking about anything other than the cost of living and stability in Europe and around the world is a minute wasted.”
Mr Burnham has not yet indicated whether he intends to remain in the seat or run for the Labor leadership. “People shouldn’t jump to conclusions,” he said Thursday.
But if the mayor of Manchester wants to become Labor leader, here’s what needs to happen.
Step 1: Selection
If Mr Burnham really wants to become MP for Gorton and Denton, he will first need to be approved by Labour’s governing body, the National Executive Committee (NEC).
Although it is the local members of the constituency who vote for its candidates, the NEC oversees this process and has the power to veto or override the election.
And in the rare cases where an incumbent mayor wants to stand as a parliamentary candidate, the Labor Party rulebook states that they must “obtain the express permission of the NEC” before even seeking candidacy.
The NEC is currently chaired by home affairs minister Shabana Mahmood; Other MPs include the attorney-general and chancellor’s sister Ellie Reeves, chief whip Jonathan Reynolds and Sir Keir’s allies such as Luke Akehurst and Gurinder Singh Josan.
Another point against Mr Burnham is that he would have to resign before he could run for mayor of Manchester, and re-election in the city would cost around £2 million.
In recent days, many members of that executive branch have told the media that Mr. Burnham’s chances of being elected are “zero.”
However, such a high-profile intervention by the NEC could be seen by the public as anti-democratic and indicate a lack of confidence in the prime minister’s ability to weather the leadership challenge; This is a factor that may affect the institution’s decision.
Step 2: Win the by-election
If Mr Burnham is selected as a candidate in Gorton and Denton, he will have the task of running an election campaign and winning the seat.
While Labor won a comfortable victory in the constituency in 2024 with 50.8 percent of the vote, figures show the party may struggle even more this year.
The latest poll by More in Common shows that Reform UK is growing in popularity in the region, while the Greens are eating into Labour’s base. According to the latest MRP, Nigel Farage’s party gets 30 percent of the votes, Labor 28 percent and the Greens 23 percent.
But the seat has returned a Labor MP at every election since it was founded as Denton and Reddish in 1983.
Mr Burnham’s personal popularity is also very high, particularly in Manchester, where he has been a high-profile politician since 2001.
Step 3: Challenge the Prime Minister and win
Having overcome these two major hurdles, Mr. Burnham would find himself back in the House of Commons for the first time in almost a decade, maneuvering his way into the leadership with another mandate in hand.
To do this, he will first need the support of 20 per cent of Labor MPs. This will have at least 81 members, with the majority of the party.
Mr Burnham is likely to find the necessary support in the House of Commons if he wishes to make a leadership bid. In recent months many Labor MPs have privately suggested they are unhappy with the direction and poor polling of the party under Sir Keir.
In November, Norwich South MP Clive Lewis publicly backed Mr Burnham as leader, going so far as to say he would give up his seat for the Manchester mayor to run.
This will lead to the final hurdle: leadership selection. Shortlisted candidates are chosen by Labor members across the country, and the winner automatically becomes prime minister due to the party’s majority in parliament.
Most importantly, this has never happened before. It would be a historic achievement for Mr Burnham to secure victory at this stage. But given YouGov’s current ranking as the UK’s most popular politician, the odds may be in his favour, with three quarters now viewing Sir Keir unfavorably.
