Could Labour lose Gorton and Denton? Here’s what the polls say

We’re just weeks away from a crucial by-election in Greater Manchester’s Gorton and Denton constituency, which looks set to be one of Labour’s biggest tests yet.

All the major parties’ candidates have been announced, setting the stage for an intense campaign period in the south-west Manchester district.

Labor has nominated Manchester councilor Angeliki Stogia for the seat as it looks to hold its ground and avoid a damaging defeat.

Meanwhile, Reform have named UK News presenter Matt Goodwin as their preference against plumber and local councilor Hannah Spencer of the Green Party.

These were the three leading parties in the 2024 constituency; The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were trailing behind George Galloway’s British Labor Party.

It would be a historic loss for the Labor Party, which has remained a Labor Party stronghold in some way since 1974, if it cedes Gorton and Denton to Reform or the Greens on 26 February.

Here’s what the polls suggest:

Could Labor lose Gorton and Denton?

Current polls show a mixed picture but one thing is certain: Labor will face a tougher challenge than ever in the constituency.

Most polls show Reform ahead of the incumbent party, but by just a few points on average. Meanwhile, the Green Party’s votes are slightly behind, but pollsters predict that there may be an increase if tactical voting is taken into account.

Here’s the average of current polls:

Two of the main current MRP polls show Reform ahead of Labour: the Electoral Account at 32 per cent to Labour’s 22.6, and the British Estimates at 32 per cent to Labour’s much higher 26 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Poll Report predicts Labor will hold the seat with 35.26 per cent of the vote, with Reform holding the seat with 27.65 votes.

Here’s a breakdown of each:

None currently favor the Greens, but these are calculated based on previous results and demographic data, so factors such as tactical voting are not taken into account.

This could be a major factor for Zack Polanski’s party, with Labor MPs due to hold a briefing recently. Independent specially They expect the Greens to benefit from Labour’s weak national popularity and a tactical anti-Reform vote at the ballot box.

What happened in the last election?

The seat, which was reorganized as Denton and Reddish in 1983 (and became Gorton and Denton in 2024), has since been represented by just two MPs, both Labor. This was first Andrew Bennett and Andrew Gwynne, who has been out of office since 2005.

Labor retained a significant majority of 13,413 in the 2024 general election with 50.8 per cent of the vote. However, this rate was significantly lower than the 2019 result, when the party had a majority of 22,175 and a vote share of 67.2 percent.

Reform came second with 14.1 percent of the vote, an increase of 9.2 points compared to 2019, while the Greens came third with 13.2 percent (up 10.7 points). Participation also fell from 61.7 percent to 46.8 percent.

This could explain Labour’s 16.4 point decline and shows a trend that many Labor MPs worry will continue in February.

Current polls for the seat confirm it is shaping up to be a much tougher race for Labour, running on growing support for Reform; The Green Party is also probing further into the incumbent party’s voter base.