Could the US help install Reza Pahlavi to topple the Islamic Republic and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini?

Şirin had been waiting for news from her sister in Tehran for more than a week. “I knew he would protest,” says the Iranian-Australian engineer, whose name has been changed to protect family members. “Everyone actually feels a responsibility to get out.”

It was on January 8th. Human rights organizations were already reporting It was stated that dozens of people were killed in the protests that started over the decrease in the value of money in the markets of the city at the end of last year.

That same day, Iranian leaders cut off internet access and implemented a digital blackout that made calls and messages impossible.

“There is always a possibility that my sister will go to jail,” says Şirin. “I don’t know if he’s alive or not.”

But amid the fear, there is also hope that this round of protests can achieve what the ones in 2009, 2017-2018 and 2022 failed to do: the end of the Islamic Republic.

Under an internet outage, the already difficult task of making predictions becomes even more difficult. Iran’s leaders are experienced in suppressing uprisings. President Donald Trump, who has vowed “help is on the way”, has so far refrained from military strikes even as the confirmed death toll rises above 2,600, according to human rights group HRANA. The US announced new sanctions instead.

At the same time, the demonstrations that spread to all provinces are the largest demonstrations in the 46 years that the theocratic regime has been in power.

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Australian analyst Kylie Moore-Gilbert, who was imprisoned by Iran for more than two years on false espionage charges, wrote this week: “The question is not if it will fall, but when it will fall.”

“The catastrophic collapse of Iran’s economy, combined with widespread anger at the unimaginable cruelty of the brutal crackdown… almost guarantees a new round of protests.”

But if a revolution succeeds and citizens tear careful portraits of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei off the walls, who will replace him? Who is writing the next chapter for a country with a Persian history dating back five thousand years?

A leader’s name is remembered with slogans from cities to rural areas; The son of an autocrat who promised not to become an autocrat himself.

In 1978, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi visited the Great Barrier Reef as part of an official visit, dined with the governor of NSW and spent time at the War Memorial in Canberra.

Shortly thereafter, the 17-year-old moved to the United States to train as a fighter pilot at a Texas air base.

His father is Mohammed Reza Shah or the king of Iran was close to the USA. A coup carried out by American and British intelligence agencies in 1953 made him the undisputed leader of the country.

However, over time, disappointments arose among the public.

Mohammad Reza, although undeniably repressive, failed to contain an opposition movement led by hard-line clerics. Powerless in the face of the Islamic revolution, he fled the country in 1979 and died of cancer in Cairo the following year.

His eldest son Pahlavi never returned to his hometown. He qualified as a pilot, raised a family, wrote books and gave speeches advocating the end of the Iranian regime. He lives in America and has visited Israel. Once a marginal figure, the 65-year-old’s standing among Iranians has increased in the past five years.

“They see it as a credible, legitimate alternative,” says Parisa Glass, who came to Australia in the 80s after fleeing Iran on foot to avoid persecution as a follower of the Baha’i faith. “Above all, they want to ensure that Iran and Iranians remain united.”

Last week, Pahlavi called on protesters to take back public spaces and start chanting slogans at certain times. Hundreds of thousands of people followed his call. “Long live the Shah” slogans were heard in the videos uploaded to social media before the power outage.

In a post later published on X, Pahlavi called on workers in key sectors to strike, security forces to defect, and protesters to “take over city centres”.

“It is extremely difficult to get people out of their homes and onto the streets in Iran,” says Amin Naeni, a researcher at Deakin University. “Even the Islamic Republic did not expect to receive such a response to Pahlavi’s call, which is why the internet remained online for almost two hours after the protests linked to his call began.”

The close relationship his father had with the United States is no longer the problem for Pahlavi that it once was. According to Naeni and other analysts, the regime’s anti-American rhetoric has lost its validity, especially among young people. Nostalgia for pre-1979 prosperity and secular freedoms increases this appeal.

Pahlavi promises to act not as a king but as a “servant of my people.” “I’m here to be an honest broker above the fray, with complete impartiality, but I’m here to make sure that we have a completely transparent democratic transition,” he told CBS News this week.

However, Pahlavi retained the title of crown prince. His supporters call him Shah.

“What guarantee is there that he will not become another Mohammad Reza Shah and rule as his father ruled?” asks Mohammad Ghaedi, a professor at George Washington University.

“These are some of the real concerns in Iran and many [Iranians] “Even though they really, really hated the Islamic Republic, they didn’t join the protest.”

Monarchists who support Pahlavi are just one of the opposition groups vying to control a future free Iran.

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in 2023 The crown prince attended along with seven other diaspora leaders, including actor Nazanin Boniadi, Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi and former football captain Ali Karimi. They promised to prepare a convention on common values.

Shortly thereafter, they issued the Mahsa Regulation, named after Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman killed by Iranian morality police for allegedly not wearing a headscarf.

However, the coalition collapsed less than two months later. Washington Post reported this week“torn apart by disagreements over membership, lack of strategic thinking and organization, and fierce opposition from much of Pahlavi’s support base”.

Where diaspora opposition has fragmented, potential leaders within Iran have been repeatedly imprisoned.

In July, former deputy interior minister Mostafa Tajzadeh was sentenced to five years in prison for statements he made in prison. Narges Mohammadi, who was awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for her activism, was hospitalized after a violent arrest in December, according to her family.

“Let’s not forget that many Iranians have been fighting in Iran for decades. They have been imprisoned, they have been persecuted,” says Alam Saleh, a lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University. Committed activists are unlikely to hand over power to a leader like Pahlavi “just because he’s someone’s son.”

Saleh adds that without a stable government providing security, ethnic groups in Iran (including Kurds, Turks and Arabs) can more aggressively pursue their own interests in border areas with neighboring countries.

There is also the potential danger posed by senior military and security officials who have little to lose once they are removed from their posts.

“Even if the regime collapses, the Revolutionary Guards will not disappear easily,” says Saleh. “So look at the Iraq experience after the fall of Saddam… They were fighting and they had actually joined ISIS. [Islamic State].”

While Pahlavi said the new government should keep elements of bureaucracy and judiciary in place, he insisted that those whose hands were “stained with the blood of Iranians” should face justice.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump called on Iranians to “hide the names of murderers and abusers,” saying they “will pay a big price.”

The last line of Trump’s post, “help is on the way,” sparked speculation that the president might order a military strike. Iran closed its airspace and the United States removed some of its personnel from bases in the region.

Pahlavi had said before Trump’s election that the United States should not intervene militarily. However, he recently called on America to come to Iran’s aid. Iranians can read between the lines, says Ghaedi of George Washington University.

“A lot of people’s interpretation is that he was talking about a military strike,” he says. on wednesday, Pahlavi met with senator Lindsey GrahamHe is one of the names of the MAGA movement that is most in favor of armed interventions.

But so far the US has refrained from ordering symbolic strikes or more sustained bombardments.

Another option would be to assassinate or capture the ayatollah. Just two weeks ago, the United States captured and detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, one of Iran’s closest allies, accusing him of running a “corrupt, illegitimate government” fueled by drug trafficking.

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However, it seems unlikely that the US will use the “Maduro model” in Iran Center for United States Studies research director Jared Mondschein. To advance in government, officials must show complete loyalty. Commentators note that they are often chosen for their ideological enthusiasm.

“I find it difficult to imagine cutting off just one aspect of the regime,” says Mondschein. “It’s almost profound in many ways that a change at the top can really change the dynamics.” He also expects any compromise, such as a new autocrat willing to give up the country’s nuclear ambitions, to be rejected by the Iranian people.

When asked whether Iranians would accept any change in the current government, refugee Parisa Glass is adamant. “Absolutely not,” he says. “The root is rotten. It has to go and new things are planted in its place.”

Şirin says that the leaders of the Islamic Republic do not even deserve to be called a regime. “They look like a terrorist gang,” he says. “And they took 90 million people hostage.”

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