DAN HODGES: The Force is definitely with Andy Burnham… and there’s nothing Darth Vader Starmer can do to change it

During their climactic duel at the end of Star Wars, Obi-Wan Kenobi delivers a prescient warning to Darth Vader. ‘You can’t win, Darth. If you shoot me, I’ll be stronger than you can imagine.’

Moments later, he lowers his lightsaber, the Sith Lord attacks, and the old Jedi disappears and takes his place among the shining immortals of the Force.

Keir Starmer faces a similar dilemma this weekend. Should he shoot Andy Burnham and turn him into Labour’s newest martyr by preventing him from standing in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-elections? Or should he step aside, let him escape, and risk the King in the North returning to Westminster and usurping his throne?

It is not yet clear which option the Prime Minister is choosing. But one thing is clear. Ser Keir and his allies are already beginning to lose all courage as they struggle to grapple with the Burnham riddle.

In the hours after it was confirmed that Andrew Gwynne had resigned, paving the way for Burnham’s return, Downing Street’s reaction became increasingly hysterical. Friendly journalists were informed that his candidacy would send markets into freefall. Others were told the cost of holding a new mayoral contest in Manchester would be prohibitive.

As the day progressed, various and increasingly outlandish subterfuges were devised to ensure his exclusion from the competition. A Starmer supporter has revealed that an all-female shortlist could be implemented. Although it was never used by Labor in by-elections. A second ally has emerged, claiming an all-BAME shortlist will be drawn up. Despite the fact that such a list would be illegal under equality legislation.

By evening, Starmer’s ‘friends’ had abandoned the pretense that there was an objective logic to their possible gerrymandering. They clearly said, ‘One way or another, we’re going to thwart Andy Burnham.’

Keir Starmer faces a dilemma. Should he overthrow Andy Burnham, or stand aside, let him escape, and risk the King in the North returning to Westminster and usurping his throne? Dan Hodges writes

One of Burnham’s supporters told me: ‘They would have to be crazy to block him. It would cause chaos. Starmer won’t survive this.’

Whether they will, or even can, is another matter. From conversations with ministers and MPs over the last 48 hours, it is clear that the mood within the party has shifted significantly towards allowing Burnham’s candidacy.

As one Burnham supporter told me: ‘They’d have to be crazy to block him. It would cause chaos. Starmer won’t survive this.’

A minister supporting the prime minister agreed. ‘I actually think it would be a mistake to block him. This only strengthens Burnham and the rebels. And it doesn’t solve any of the fundamental problems.’

Some Burnham supporters reached a compromise in the form of a ‘loyalty oath’. As someone told me: ‘It would be reasonable to expect a by-election candidate to make clear public support for the party leader. And in any case, Andy won’t win the by-election on Friday and then mount a leadership challenge the following Monday. So this will give Keir some more time to see if he can stabilize things.’

But the prevailing mood in Downing Street is not one of conciliation. In bunker No. 10, the feeling of kill or be killed prevails. ‘They basically want Andy’s head nailed in,’ one MP told me.

This further underlines the level of dysfunction currently present in the Prime Minister’s political operation. Worn down by collapsing poll numbers, constant rebellions and a series of chaotic U-turns, Starmer’s advisers have lost their ability to think rationally.

If they block Burnham there will be only one outcome. Labor will explode into a blame frenzy. Starmer will be belittled and mocked daily by his political rivals.

Reformat’s defeat will be likely in the next by-elections. So did Starmer’s defense in the local elections that followed. At this point his premiership would have been doomed anyway.

And this is just the inner perspective. It must be emphasized once again that we are talking about a Prime Minister who won an overwhelming majority 18 months ago. But the British people are now nothing more than a strange, shapeless blob to him. At best an indifference, at worst a dangerous obstacle to his increasingly desperate attempts to cling to power.

This is the only explanation for Downing Street’s current self-immolation strategy. Think about this for a moment. In Number 10, grown men and women are actually saying to themselves: ‘Our public support has fallen to 14 per cent. Reformation is in revolt. The Greens are on the rise. Conservatives are back from the dead. We face a potentially fatal midterm election.

‘I know: let’s publicly block one of the few candidates who is hugely popular in the North and has a real chance of holding that seat! Let’s say the reason we’re doing this is because we want to support the diversity, equity and inclusion agenda!’

If Keir Starmer blocks Andy Burnham, he won’t be pointing two fingers at Red Wall Britain. He’ll throw it to the ground, kick the goolies and spit: ‘Greetings from North London, you ungrateful Northern oiks.’

This is what the Starmer premiership has reached. There is no longer a meaningful agenda. Or policy program. Or vision. Or a coherent plan to turn the political tide.

It seems that the Prime Minister and his aides’ only remaining strategy is to find ways to actively prevent British people from voting for their rivals. Local elections. Burnham selection. The pattern is being determined.

This is Starmer’s way now. To change. To betray. Stitch. Gerrymander. Do anything but let people judge him and the country’s ignorant leadership.

And this is a strategy that can only end one way. Keir Starmer cannot escape voters, his own MPs and party activists forever. There will be a showdown soon. And if he blocks Andy Burnham, it’s only a matter of time before Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, or another Labor Padawan takes his place.

Darth Vader foolishly ignored Obi-Wan’s warning. And he paid the ultimate price. The Prime Minister is now stuck in the same corner. The power is with Andy Burnham.