UK did ‘too little, too late’, leading to thousands more deaths

The UK’s response to Covid was “too little, too late” and led to thousands more deaths in the first wave, an investigation into government decision-making has said.

The report also stated that isolation could be avoided if voluntary steps such as social distancing and isolation of those with symptoms and household members were implemented before March 16, 2020.

The report stated that by the time ministers took action it was too late and the lockdown was inevitable, then stated that the week-long delay had led to more deaths in the first wave in England than would otherwise have been seen.

The report criticized the governments of all four countries and stated that there was a “chaotic culture” in Downing Street.

Baroness Hallett, chair of the inquiry, said the government was presented with enviable choices under extreme pressure but “all four governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat or the urgency of the response it demanded in early 2020”.

He said ministers had partly relied on “misleading assurances” that the UK was prepared.

Lady Hallett added that government scientists had underestimated how quickly the virus was spreading and in the early days they advised that restrictions should not be introduced until the spread of the virus was nearing its peak to help develop herd immunity.

The nearly 800-page report, the second of 10 planned by the inquiry, also reveals a number of other failings:

• It was stated that it was “inexcusable” to repeat the same mistakes in the spring of 2020 in the autumn, when the second wave began to form and Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeatedly changed his mind about the need for tougher restrictions.
• Politicians and their advisors breaking the rules Dominic Cummings’ trip to Durham and Barnard Castle in March 2020 listed – Weakened public confidence in decision-making and significantly increased the risk of people not complying with measures
• A “toxic and chaotic” culture at the heart of the government’s response to the pandemic affected the quality of advice and decision-making, the report said.
• All four countries were criticized for their planning and decision-making processes, which the report said were hampered by a lack of trust between Boris Johnson and first ministers.
• The Eating Out Scheme, proposed by Chancellor Rishi Sunak and agreed by Johnson in August 2020 to support hospitality venues, was “designed in the absence of any scientific advice” and “undermined public health messaging”
• The impact on vulnerable groups such as the elderly, disabled people and some ethnic minorities has not been taken into sufficient account when deciding how to respond to the virus, even though the harm to them was foreseeable.
• Children were not given sufficient priority because ministers failed to properly consider the consequences of school closures.

The report stated that while lockdowns helped save lives, they left permanent scars on society, brought ordinary childhood to a halt, delayed treatment for non-Covid health problems and worsened inequalities.

It was stated that modeling showed that 23,000 deaths could be saved by imposing a quarantine one week before March 23, 2020, which would equal 48% fewer deaths in the first wave until July 1, 2020.

However, the report does not suggest that the total number of deaths in the UK, which stands at 227,000 by the time the pandemic ends in 2023, will fall.

This is very difficult to say as it depends on a variety of other factors that could reduce or increase the number of deaths as the pandemic progresses.

But the inquiry praised the government for the “remarkable” rollout of its vaccination program and how it emerged from the lockdown in early 2021, giving vulnerable groups time to get the vaccine. The report stated that this situation was a turning point for England.

The report made a number of different recommendations, including:

• Better assess the impact decisions may have on those most at risk, both for the disease and the steps taken to respond to it
• Expanding participation in the advisory group of Sage scientists, including representatives of devolved governments, as well as establishing other expert groups to advise on economic and social implications
• Reorganizing and clarifying decision-making structures during emergencies in every nation
• Improving communication between the four countries in an emergency situation

Deborah Doyle, of Families Bereaved by Covid-19 for Justice, said it was “devastating to think of the lives that could have been saved” under different leadership.

“We now know that without the leadership of Boris Johnson and his colleagues, many of our family members would still be alive today.

“Throughout the pandemic, Boris Johnson has put his political reputation above public safety. He has pandered to his critics when the UK needed decisive action.”

Johnson has not yet responded to the findings.

But Cummings, who was Boris Johnson’s chief adviser at the start of the pandemic, accused the investigation of a mixture of “cover-up and rewriting history”.

He said in a social media post that he was offered the chance to respond to the investigation’s findings before the report was published, but he declined, declaring it “insider corruption”.

The official said experts “advise us to do next to nothing” and “advise against any serious restrictions” as the country will reach “natural herd immunity” by September.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the government would “carefully consider” the findings and recommendations.

He said improvements had been made in how the government responds to a major crisis, but added: “It is clear that our public services, including local government and the NHS, are under huge pressure and in many cases have not fully recovered from the pandemic.

“The cost of the epidemic still continues to be a heavy burden on the public budget.

“That’s why this government is committed to promoting growth in the economy and reform of public services, so that when we face the next crisis we do so from a position of national resilience.”

Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey called on Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to apologize on behalf of her party and said the news that the lockdown could have been avoided was “shattering”.

“This tragedy must never be repeated,” he added.