Democrats cruising as economic woes take a toll on Trump’s GOP. Takeaways from Election Day 2025
While the debate over the future of the Democratic Party has only just begun, there are signs that the economy, particularly Trump’s failure to deliver the economic transformation he promised last fall, could be a real problem for Trump’s GOP heading into next year’s high-stakes midterm elections.
Democrats on Tuesday won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states electing new governors this year.
Trump was largely absent from the campaign trail, but GOP candidates have aligned themselves closely with the president, betting that his blowout win last year could pave a path to victory this time around, even if the party occupying the White House usually suffers in off-year elections.
They were wrong.
Democrats are hopeful that strong showings can give the party a path back nationally, even as strong candidates have taken very different approaches, from sticking to a moderate line to wholeheartedly embracing government spending to improve voters’ lives. In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who is already the target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if elected mayor. California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House of Representatives map as Democrats seek to counter Trump’s push to reshape the congressional balance of power. Here are some key takeaways:
Democrats’ new playbook emerges
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger will be Virginia’s next governor and first female chief executive; Representative Mikie Sherrill won the New Jersey governor’s office by running campaigns that focused largely on the economy, public safety and health care.
Both actively distanced themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies and emphasized what Spanberger described in his victory speech as “pragmatism over partisanship.”
A growing number of Democratic leaders believe moderation is the key to the party’s revival after the GOP won the White House and both congressional chambers last year.
Above all, Democrats in both states focused on rising costs like food, energy and health care that Trump has struggled to control.
In addition to being caught in the middle on economic issues, Spanberger and Sherrill have downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance to Trump’s assault on American institutions. Spanberger rarely mentioned Trump’s name on the campaign trail.
Both of them have CVs that can appeal to the middle class.
Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years working undercover overseas, while Sherrill worked as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy for a decade before entering Congress. Both touted their public safety backgrounds in direct response to the GOP’s attack that Democrats are soft on crime.
It’s (still) economics, stupid
Trump and his Republican allies have focused particularly on immigration, crime and conservative cultural issues.
But voters deciding Tuesday’s primary were more concerned with budget issues: the economy, jobs and the cost of living, which remains stubbornly high. That’s according to the AP Voter Survey, a comprehensive survey of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City, finding that many voters feel they can’t get ahead financially in today’s economy, even if their personal finances are stable.
Ironically, the same economic concerns helped bring Trump to the White House just a year ago. Now, economic concerns appear to be hurting his party’s political ambitions in 2025 and could be more problematic for the GOP in next year’s midterm elections, which will determine the balance of power for Trump’s final two years in office.
This is true even as Trump regularly boasts about the rise in stock prices and leading a new renaissance in American manufacturing.
About half of Virginia voters said the economy was the most important issue facing their state, while a majority of New Jersey voters said either taxes or the economy was the most important issue in their state. Just over half of New York City voters said the cost of living was their biggest concern.
It was unclear whether the kitchen-table concerns that weigh so heavily on voters could help break the stalemate that has led to a government shutdown that has dragged on for more than a month.
Democrats in Congress have demanded an extension of expiring tax credits that helped millions of people get health insurance, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until the government reopens. Voters across the country said the cost of health care is important, but generally not as much as basic economic concerns.
Will there be a referendum on Trump?
The president hasn’t set foot in Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but it’s hard not to view either contest as a referendum on Trump’s job performance and the direction of the country under his leadership.
Nearly 6 in 10 voters in Virginia and New Jersey said they were “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things were going in the country, according to the AP Voter Poll. Only a third said they were “enthusiastic” or “satisfied.”
Nearly half of California voters described themselves as “angry” about the direction of the country, while another 2 in 10 said they were “dissatisfied.”
Fearing a bad night, Trump tried to distance himself from the election results.
The president has endorsed Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race but has held only a pair of tele-town halls on his behalf, including one Monday night. Trump also held a tele-town hall for Virginia Republican candidates on Monday night, but did not mention Earle-Sears, who spoke mostly in favor of the GOP attorney general nominee.
Earle-Sears was still a fierce defender of Trump, as was Ciattarelli in New Jersey.
Despite Trump’s distance, his policies, including his “big, beautiful” budget bill and massive cuts to the federal workforce, have played a central role in mayoral races in Virginia, New Jersey and even New York City. And both Republicans refused to distance themselves from the president or his agenda.
A bad night for the GOP could give Democrats a strong (perhaps short-lived) start heading into the midterm elections, which are still a year away.
A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York
Moderates won in Virginia and New Jersey. But it was a self-described democratic socialist who rode to victory in New York City.
Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old state legislator who supports radical changes to address economic inequality, will serve as the next mayor of the nation’s largest city.
His bold agenda and inspirational approach helped deliver the largest turnout in the New York City mayoral race in at least three decades. The situation also frightened some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community who support Democrats but oppose some of Mamdani’s personal wealth accumulation and past statements about Israel.
Mamdani defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent and actually won Trump’s endorsement on the eve of the election.
And while many progressives were excited, some Republicans in Washington were quietly supporting a Mamdani victory. Even before her victory was assured, Republican campaign committees ran attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, associating them with Mamdani and her far-left politics.
The ad campaign is expected to expand to Democrats across the country ahead of next year’s midterms.
