Democrats lead midterm poll 48% to 43% over Republicans in new survey

Democrats hold a slight advantage heading into the midterm elections, according to a new poll from The New York Times and the University of Siena.

The poll found that if the midterm elections were held today, 48 percent of registered voters would support a Democratic candidate, while only 43 percent would support the Republican candidate. The poll also revealed skepticism about President Donald Trump’s policies; 47 percent of registered voters said they “strongly disapprove” of how Trump is handling the presidency.

The survey of 1,625 registered voters nationwide between Jan. 12 and 17 found a margin of error of 2.8%.

And 51 percent of Americans say Trump’s policies have made their lives less costly.

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Overall, 49% of registered voters say the country is worse off than a year ago, while 32% say it is better.

The survey aligns with other recent surveys that have found that many Americans view the president and his agenda unfavorably.

The President’s approval rating has recently been at 45% Wall Street Magazine The Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump’s approval at 41%, and the average of the latest national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics puts Trump’s approval at 42%, with 55% saying they don’t like the job he’s doing.

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Louisiana Representative Steve Scalise, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Oklahoma Representative Tom Cole attend a press conference in Washington, DC, on October 8, 2025. (Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump began his second term in positive territory, but his approval ratings dipped below water last March and gradually deepened into negative territory in the months that followed.

The percentage of registered voters who say the country is on the right track has remained stable since April, according to the survey. And Trump continues to get support from Republicans; Four in five GOP registered voters say the United States is on the right track.

Deep concerns about inflation have helped Trump and Republicans win big at the ballot box in 2024; They won back the White House and the Senate and preserved the House majority.

But the Democrats’ decisive victory November 2025 electionsand their overperformance in special elections and other ballot box showdowns last year stemmed from their laser focus on affordability amid persistent inflation.

Trump’s approval ratings on the economy are falling. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump’s approval ratings economy on average slightly lower than overall approval ratings.

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The president’s numbers on illegal immigration, another issue that propelled him to re-election victory, have also declined over the past year. The issue came to the fore once again this month after a Minnesota woman was fatally shot by an ICE agent while protesting the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.