Despite propaganda coup of F-15 crew rescue, downing is reminder to US that Iran can fight back | US-Israel war on Iran
Donald Trump will inevitably claim the rescue of the second crew member of the downed F-15 fighter jet as a propaganda victory, but the 48-hour drama is a reminder that an undefeated Iran could strike back and harm the United States.
This should also be a warning to the White House, which is considering whether to launch a ground operation in Iran to seize an island in the Persian Gulf — especially if there is a serious desire to mine Iran’s highly enriched uranium underground.
The US-Israeli bombing of Iran was so heavily skewed in favor of the aggressors that a single attack in the five weeks of the war instantly became a major problem for the Americans because it was so rare and memorable. The last time a US warplane was shot down by enemy forces was in 2003 during the Iraq war.
Although it is not clear exactly how the F-15E was shot down, it is a reminder that the air superiority achieved by the US and Israeli air forces, which bomb Iran 300 to 500 times a day, is not entirely absolute.
An F-15E Strike Eagle costs $31 million (though replacement could be $100 million), but where the difficulties clearly begin is in the recovery section, which is much higher risk than the mission the US fighter jet is on.
A decision to use an abandoned Iranian airstrip south of Isfahan as a forward operating location went awry when two C-130 Hercules carriers, possibly modified search-and-rescue variants, became grounded.
US sources stated that these were destroyed by the US to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands, and that more transports had to be brought in to complete the extraction of the second injured crew member. The list price for each of the modified Hercules is approximately $115 million.
The HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopter, which participated in the rescue effort, was also damaged by gunfire on Friday; thus it is easy to conclude that the cost of lost and damaged airframes exceeded $250 million, largely for the rescue of the second crew member.
From a military perspective, a single event like this doesn’t mean much to the United States. Losing a plane, whether shot down or by accident, is part of war. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the United States had 218 F-15E Strike Eagles and 55 C-130s under its special forces command before attacking Iran.
A full-scale US search and rescue operation was politically necessary to prevent Iran from capturing any of the crew. The capture of either or both would be a blow for Tehran and revive memories of the 1979-80 U.S. embassy hostage crisis that took a toll on then-President Jimmy Carter.
Trump underlined this point by emphasizing in capital letters in his social media post that the USA would never leave an American warrior behind. It’s an attractive commitment, but it means more costs and risks will be incurred each time it’s called upon.
In this incident, Iranian forces were unable to locate any of the F-15E crew members. They couldn’t object to the US’s use of the abandoned air base south of Isfahan, but that may have been because Reaper drones were hovering overhead, which according to US briefings were there to kill any Iranian male who got within 3 km.
But the forced loss of the rescue C-130 transports is a reminder of the greater risks inherent in any U.S. ground operation against Iran. Could it really be possible for US special forces to seize 440 kg of highly enriched uranium, thought to be stored in tin cans underground in Isfahan, and fly it without major incident?
There is no doubt that Iran, which has been bombed more than 15,000 times so far, has been battered by the relentless air attacks of the USA and Israel. But Tehran can still turn relatively minor US or Israeli losses into a propaganda victory, regardless of the state of its troops or air defenses; because these losses occur very rarely.
In an asymmetric conflict, the weak side only needs to get lucky once.
