AI data center risk for Pennsylvania GOP incumbents

The AI-powered data center boom in Pennsylvania, including a $20 billion investment. Amazon – It raises political concerns in areas of the Keystone State that could help decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The four contested House races are taking place in the eastern part of the state, where Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is focusing on data center expansion plans. Republicans represent all four districts and are looking to not only retain their seats in the November elections but also retain control of the House of Representatives, where the party has a five-seat majority.

Political analysts say the data center dynamic could harm established companies that will bear the brunt of public backlash for an unpopular development.

All four districts are considered in play with Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report. rates each congressional race. The Cook Report lists Districts 7, 8, and 10 all as “leave.” Cook rates the 1st District in Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, as “probably Republican,” so that district is also considered to be in play. It’s represented by Brian Fitzpatrick and is set to see construction with Amazon’s cash infusion.

The bipartisan backlash against data centers has further complicated an already difficult environment for Republicans in competitive districts, said Chris Borick, director of the Public Opinion Institute at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

“They are really caught between opposing forces,” he said. “Many of these people are in uncomfortable, challenging positions to begin with and [the issue of] data centers have presented another challenge.”

Borick said the rise in data center opposition presents a tightrope for Republican incumbents to walk as they aim to balance President Donald Trump’s energy agenda and the need to support artificial intelligence growth with their voters’ frustration and opposition to data center construction.

Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., whose 10th District victory in 2024 had one of the closest margins in the country, said he sees data center regulation as largely outside his purview, even though he is preoccupied with national energy policy.

“At the end of the day, most of these things … are local issues for local municipalities,” he said. “As a federal guy, you know, I don’t get into local zoning and construction and what municipalities choose or don’t choose. Those are local decisions.”

In the 7th and 8th Districts, Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan, respectively, unseated incumbent Democrats in 2024.

Data centers are being built across the U.S., concentrated in longtime hot spots like Northern Virginia’s “data center alley.” in Pennsylvania, in the Amazon, Microsoft And Karataşbacked QTS is leveraging Shapiro’s existing energy infrastructure efforts and former industrial sites and farmland ripe for redevelopment to transform the state into one of the nation’s next big data center markets. Microsoft plans to use energy produced by a reopened facility Three Mile Island nuclear reactor to power data centers.

The novelty of the hyperscale data center structure presents a unique set of conditions for politicians to navigate, as data centers remain one of the few issues in a polarized political environment without specifically defined locations along party lines. An unlikely coalition has been formed in the data center opposition movement, with environmental groups joining with populist Trump supporters.

Ginny Marcille-Kerslake, eastern Pennsylvania senior organizer for Food & Water Watch, a pro-environment group, said local opposition to data center projects in swing parts of Pennsylvania is strong, and residents are often united across party lines. The state already exists More than 100 data centers.

“In my 10 years of organizing, I have never seen the opposition increase this much,” he said. “And especially in communities that realize they are being targeted for a project.”

Republican Rep. GT Thompson, who represents a safe seat in north-central Pennsylvania, said he has noticed increased debate about data centers in the state and understands voters’ concerns about construction displacing farmers.

“Everywhere I go in Pennsylvania there is a lot of discussion on this issue,” Thompson said. “This is a technology evolution that I think is here to stay. It’s one of those controversial issues that I hear a lot about and agree with; I really don’t want these things to happen on prime farmland.”

“And from an energy perspective, I don’t want them on the grid,” he added.

Data center construction has become a nationwide flashpoint during the still-new primary election season. According to one report, opponents delayed or blocked 48 data center projects in 2025; This affected potential investment of $156 billion. report It was released in April by Data Center MonitoringA project of impartial artificial intelligence security research firm 10a Labs.

In Maine, lawmakers approved the first statewide ban on data center construction on April 14. Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, will have to sign the measure for it to go into effect. MPs in Pennsylvania considering a three-year moratorium About “hyperscale” data centers, a term loosely defined but generally referring to data centers exceeding 5,000 servers and 10,000 square feet.

In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th District, a historically swing district now represented by vulnerable freshman Republican Ryan Mackenzie, data center opposition is growing. In the South Whitehall County suburb of Allentown, community members are examining the Atlas Industrial Data Center, a six-building, 5 million-square-foot data center complex to be built across the street from a high school, sparking concern from local residents.

South Whitehall resident Cheryl Lutz He told CNBC that he was concerned about the impact a new data center would have on his home’s value after hearing stories of rising electricity prices, rolling blackouts and noise pollution bothering people living near data centers.

“Will it make it impossible for me to sell my house?” Lutz said.

Rising electricity prices, driven in part by data centers, could spell trouble for district Republicans scattered as politicians try to push an affordability agenda against the backdrop of the Iran war.

In 2025, Americans’ electric bill rates increased by 21.7 percent in Pennsylvania and 8.3 percent nationwide. US Energy Information AdministrationIt said it uses data collected on retail revenues and volumes to calculate average retail revenue per kWh.

Successful Republicans will sympathize with their voters’ concerns about energy affordability rather than fight them, Nicholas said.

“I think smart Republicans want to say that they too want lower or stable electricity prices, and they want these data centers to be located in convenient locations. I think that would be a good strategy for this year,” he added.

Still, as the affordability crunch continues and voters increasingly focus on cost-of-living concerns, incumbent politicians may feel increasingly pressured to take a stronger position on whether to support or oppose new data center construction.

“That pressure is building,” Borick said. “The demand for some kind of clear leadership is starting to come more regularly. And again, they’ve been cautious because this is a difficult issue to manage.”

“Competitors have an advantage in this regard,” Borick said. “Because a lot of this, rightly or wrongly, will be laid at the feet of the incumbents.”

With data center construction looming in the backyards of voters in many swing districts, politicians’ reactions to data center construction will weigh on voters’ minds like never before, Lutz said.

“If you’re going to be a candidate in November, it’s important to address what you’re going to do about data centers,” Lutz said. “This will definitely be on everyone’s mind. So if they ignore it, it’s going to put them in danger.”

— CNBC’s Garrett Downs And Emily Wilkins contributed to this report.