Diplomacy shifts to war: How Trump’s team decided to attack Iran

For weeks, it built an armada of carriers and destroyers in Middle Eastern waters, supported by fleets of F-35 and F-22 jets deployed to allied bases in the region. It was the largest US buildup since the 2003 Iraq war that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Trump’s goal was to pressure Iran’s rulers to do what they have resisted for decades: abandon their nuclear and long-range missile programs and stop supporting their armed proxies. He said that he preferred a diplomatic solution with Tehran, but the pile-up continued.

But even as his sons-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, his envoys to the Iran talks, prepared to fly to Geneva to meet their Iranian counterparts for further discussions, the tide was shifting toward conflict.

ALSO READ | Iran’s religious leader Ali Khamenei, whose iron rule was based on fervent hostility towards the USA and Israel, died at the age of 86

This story is based on interviews and briefings with several U.S. officials and people familiar with how last week’s events unfolded; All of these individuals requested anonymity discussing events that have not been publicly disclosed.
At Tuesday’s State of the Union meeting, Trump warned that Iranian officials were “again pursuing their sinister ambition” to restructure their nuclear program following devastating attacks by the United States and Israel last year. “They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard the secret words: ‘We will never have nuclear weapons,'” the president said.

ALSO READ | What you need to know about Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with senior congressional leaders that evening and briefed them on the talks.

Time was running out, but discussions were still going on behind the scenes. While assessments by the US Defense Intelligence Agency suggested that Iran’s nuclear progress remained limited, Israeli intelligence painted a much more urgent picture. Some US officials have quietly warned Trump’s top envoys not to place too much faith in Israel’s conclusions.

There was no progress in the Kushner-Witkoff talks in Geneva as of Thursday afternoon. But there was enough uncertainty that they decided to return later in the day, after shuttling across town for unrelated discussions with Ukrainian and Russian officials.

Iranian officials said they believed the second round of talks that day showed progress. But by the end of the evening, Kushner and Witkoff felt all avenues had been exhausted. In their view, the worldview of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei left little room for coexistence with Trump’s vision of the Middle East.

After staying in Geneva for 16 hours, the Americans complied with the deadline and returned to Washington.

As plans were announced for further talks next week, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, a mediator at the Geneva talks, was alarmed and convinced that conflict was imminent. On Friday morning, he flew directly from Geneva to Washington to meet with Vice President J.D. Vance, a longtime skeptic of foreign intervention who may still have the president’s ear in Iran.

‘Not Happy’

The move infuriated some of Trump’s hawkish advisers; Some described this aid as bordering on disloyalty, an outside force trying to divide the president’s inner circle at a critical moment.

That same day, at the White House, Trump was preparing to fly to Texas to deal with domestic politics days before a critical primary election in the state. However, he became demoralized towards Iran.

Officials who briefed him said that while a short-term deal with Iran appeared achievable, it would not resolve core issues such as Tehran’s missile program. At a rally in Texas that day, Trump said he was “not happy” with the state of the negotiations.

Then there was some lightness. At a Whataburger outlet in Corpus Christi filled with American flags and adoring fans, chants of “Hamburgers for Everyone!” and took a travel bag with the number 47 on it; it was a nod to his place in the presidential pantheon.

In retrospect, the banter masked a terrible truth: There would be no more meetings. Trump left the Lone Star state and flew to Florida to spend the weekend at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Vance met with Cabinet members in Washington. That night, Rubio informed senior US lawmakers that military action against Iran was likely.

In a video recorded without journalists and released at midnight US time, Trump announced the attack and called on the Iranian people to overthrow the ruling regime, which he accused of inciting “mass terrorism”.

“No president was willing to do what I wanted to do tonight,” he said in the video. The war had begun.

Explosions shook Iran. In response to hundreds of joint US and Israeli attacks, Tehran launched a barrage of fire against Israel and US targets in the region.

As residents reported explosions and falling debris, air defense systems clashed with projectiles arriving in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi. A US-linked base in Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, came under fire. At least one person was killed in Abu Dhabi by debris created by the response.

As with the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the early stages appeared to be a rout, with Trump and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu announcing the death of Khamenei, the second religious leader to rule Iran since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979. Iran later confirmed his death. Other senior leaders, including the defense minister and the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were also reportedly killed.

But as the United States painfully learned from its interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the early hours rarely define a conflict.

Trump is relying on air power, at least for now, and trying to rally the citizens of a nation without any organized opposition to rise up and do the work on the ground he has been avoiding.

In a social media post, Trump promised to continue “heavy and precise bombings” uninterrupted “throughout the week or as long as necessary.” However, he also called on Iranians to seize the opportunity he said he gave them.

For Trump, this is his second major military action against an enemy since the beginning of the year. Emboldened by his successful and swift ouster of the Venezuelan leader, Trump once again ripped up the MAGA playbook and decided to start a war of his own choosing. A leader who rose to prominence a decade ago by condemning America’s “endless wars” has taken his biggest risk yet, and the consequences could play out for years to come.

But the president doesn’t seem worried. Back at his Florida resort, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president would stick to his previous plans for the weekend as Republicans rallied to his side.

“President Trump still plans to stop by the Republican Party fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago tonight, which is more important than ever,” he said.