Nigel Farage vows to ‘throw everything’ at Andy Burnham by-election as figures suggest Reform could win the seat and cause a Labour meltdown

Nigel Farage has vowed to ‘throw it all away’ in what will be the most dramatic and consequential race in more than half a century.

This afternoon, former minister Josh Simons said he plans to resign and call a by-election to allow Andy Burnham to make a sensational return to parliament.

But the Mayor of Manchester’s route back to the political forefront could be disrupted by Reform UK, who believe they have a real chance of grabbing the seat.

The Rebel Right party quickly released figures showing they had won the constituency in last week’s local elections.

Of the eight wards that went to the polls in Mr Simons’s seat, Reform UK won every one, defeating Labor.

Mr Farage won 50.4 per cent of the vote, compared to Labour’s dismal 22.7 per cent.

If a general election is held tomorrow, Reform would be ahead of Labor by 13 points, according to pollsters British Predicts.

The seat has returned Labor MPs at every election since its creation in 1983; With huge majorities until 2019, when Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party approached the 5,000-vote mark.

Andy Burnham wants to stand in the constituency, claiming Keir Starmer won’t block him a second time (Image: Duo in January)

Reform became the local opposition in 2024, overtaking the Conservatives and falling just 5,399 votes behind Mr Simons.

Reform UK also believes Mr Burnham has a good chance of winning the mayoralty of Manchester, from which he would have to stand down if he runs for Parliament.

In the city’s local elections, Reform UK received 234,000 votes to Labor’s 177,000 and the Greens’ 147,000.

If Mr Burnham is allowed to become Labour’s candidate, the by-election will therefore become a tremendous test for the ‘King in the North’ and his local popularity.

Mr Burnham last night confirmed his intention to apply to stand for Labour’s National Executive Committee and said he ‘cares deeply about this committee and its people’.

While making his speech he argued: ‘There is a lot that can be done from Greater Manchester.

‘A much bigger change is needed at a national level to make everyday life more affordable again.

‘That’s why I’m now seeking public support to return to Parliament: to bring the same change we brought to Greater Manchester to the whole of the UK and to make politics work properly for people.’

He did not address his ambition to represent the Labor leadership when he returned to the House of Commons, but said Labor figures ‘owe it to people to regroup as a Labor movement by giving the Prime Minister and the Government the space and stability they need when the by-elections take place’.

The news was welcomed by Labor MPs, who nominated Mr Burnham to replace Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

Among them was Liam Conlon, son of Sir Keir’s former Chief of Staff Sue Gray, who said Mr Burnham’s announcement was ‘good news for Labor and the country’.

He warned the Prime Minister and others not to prevent him from standing up.

Josh Simons, pictured, will leave the House of Commons to make Mr Burnham’s long-awaited return

Jess Phillips warns Andy Burnham should avoid becoming ‘entitled’ thinking he can win any seat

Mr Burnham’s left-wing supporter Clive Lewis, who led calls for the NEC to allow him to stand, thanked Mr Simons for his decision to sacrifice his career.

The NEC’s decision will be made in the coming days and the next meeting will be held next Tuesday.

But speaking after Mr Simons’ resignation, senior Cabinet minister and Starmer loyalist Pat McFadden appeared to dampen expectations that Mr Burnham would be allowed to remain in office.

Asked directly whether Sir Keir and the NEC would block his candidacy, Mr McFadden told Sky News: ‘There are a lot of steps to be taken here and a lot of assumptions.

‘Ultimately, Makerfield voters will decide who the next MP will be.

‘What [the NEC] ‘They will look at the results for the seat and also the results for Greater Manchester, where Andy Burnham is mayor, and make a decision.’

Fellow Cabinet minister Steve Reed said he was ‘saddened’ that Mr Simons had decided to leave the House of Commons, but added: ‘If anyone thinks a caped superhero is coming our way with all the answers, they are in for something else.’

Meanwhile, Home Secretary Jess Phillips, who resigned this week, warned Mr Burnham against appearing ‘entitled’ by assuming he could win the seat for his own career ambitions.

Ms Phillips told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast: ‘I feel like if there is some level of authority, I’ll just have seat X, Y and Z. I don’t know, I’m really rooted in where I represent.

‘And I always thought it didn’t look very good to be doing some sort of Game of Thrones.’

Following Mr Simons’ announcement, Labor’s NEC will now write to the entire party informing them that nominations are open.

Mayors must apply for special permission to run for office, and the NEC must then meet to discuss it and consider granting it.

If granted permission, Mr Burnham will need to apply for the seat through normal means, including interview rounds.

The Daily Mail reports that a senior NEC source now believes the panel will give Mr Burnham permission to stand, with supporters saying there is a need to ‘broaden the debate’.