Economists say job market is cooling but ‘not falling off a cliff’
A recent series of high-profile layoffs has made headlines and caused anxiety in the workforce.
Companies announced 153,074 layoffs in October; This means nearly 1.1 million layoff announcements during the year. According to job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This makes it the worst year for layoff notices since 2009, CNBC reported.
But business experts say they are not in panic mode. Layoff news doesn’t paint the full picture of the job market. Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao says private data on job openings, payrolls and employee sentiment shows hiring is slowing but “not falling off a cliff.”
First, Challenger’s monthly data can be volatile, and layoff announcements have not yet appeared in weekly state-level claims for unemployment benefits that were still being reported during the shutdown.
“I’m not panicking,” says Laura Ullrich, Indeed’s director of economic research. The latest available data “does not appear to indicate that we are entering a period of high layoffs in the overall economy today.”
Government shutdown and layoffs shake employee confidence
Although economists do not predict a recession anytime soon, News of layoffs and government shutdowns is shaking employee confidence.
The share of Glassdoor reviews mentioning layoffs increased 22% year over year as of October. data from job site. Workers’ confidence in the job market has fallen after a small rise in September and is near the last record low in June, according to Glassdoor data.
The biggest declines in trust last year were seen among senior employees. 4.6 percentage points Since October 2024.
This is concerning because leadership trust spills over to other employees through hiring and investment plans. Zhao says senior leaders may decide to cut back on hiring or lay off people if they’re not sure their business is doing well.
Meanwhile, for those on the market, fewer people say they’ve received and rejected a job offer, according to Glassdoor data; This signals that they have less influence and may settle for jobs rather than look for better jobs.
Openings in healthcare offset losses elsewhere
Many workers are also competing for a smaller pool of opportunities. Job postings as of October 31 Really It is at its lowest level since 2021 and has continued its downward trend for the last four years.
Job postings are lowest in areas affected by the government shutdown, including Washington, D.C., and areas that have experienced recent technical layoffs, such as California and Washington.
Open positions are generally concentrated in the healthcare sector, security and safety and engineering sectors, which keep the job market stable.
“I see this as a tale of two economies,” Ullrich says. “There are certain areas where jobs continue to be added, and there are other areas where jobs are decreasing.”
Health care and special education jobs have supported the labor economy for some time: They account for about 17% of jobs nationally but account for 17% of employment. 56% of job growth Between July 2023 and July 2025.
“If employment in health care starts to decline, that would ring alarm bells for me,” Ullrich says.
The big picture: ‘The job market is in turmoil’
Economists say existing data sets can provide a pretty good picture of the job market, but the Labor Department’s official data on hiring and unemployment is needed to get the best look at the health of the labor economy.
unemployment rate It remained stable at 4.3% in AugustLatest month of available government data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics missed another jobs report on Friday due to the government shutdown. According to CNBC, economists participating in the Dow Jones survey reported that they expect this to decrease by 60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5%.
The numbers we have generally point to a constantly slowing down labor market. Zhao says economic uncertainty puts pressure on employers’ willingness to hire, meaning job seekers are wiped out of the market and employed workers have less pressure to advance their careers, earn salary increases and remain committed to the workplace.
Recruiting experts say building your network and asking for recommendations is the best way to find a job right now. To stand out in a competitive marketplace, consider honing your resume to be results-driven, building your personal brand on LinkedIn, and doing mock interviews, Kathleen Nolan, senior recruiting expert at GrowthLoop, previously told CNBC Make It.
“I would say that the job market in general is in trouble right now,” Zhao says. “Even if unemployment is equal [and] Some of the most important indicators still point to a job market that is not historically bad; “That doesn’t mean people are happy with where the job market is today.”
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