Enduring confusion is the only certainty amid Trump’s latest tariff threats | Trump tariffs

“There was no change at this date and there will be no change, Don Donald Trump said on the real social platform this week. “All money will be paid and paid from August 1, 2025 – no extension will be given.”

Actually, there was a change. In April, the 90 -day “Pause ı on the highest tariffs threatened by Trump on the so -called“ Liberation Day ”passed on Wednesday. However, with only three trade agreements, instead of 300 promised, the White House had changed a deadline for another.

The optimists, who seem to contain many people in Wall Street, interpreted this last shift as evidence that Trump will never pass the most potentially damaging tariffs.

However, while publishing a series of tariff letters to individual countries throughout the week, less hopeful observers perceive a Trump that is revived when he promises criminal taxes in “plundering, raping, rape and torn” countries that channel the spirit of the “Day of Independence ,, and this Gameshow style card.

These letters were all released in the real Social and contained 50% in Brazil, 30% in Sri Lanka and 35% Swingeing tariffs in Canada. As in April, some pointed out issues beyond the trade area-for example, the fate of the former President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro and the smuggling of Fentanyl from Canada.

Prof Maurice Obstfeld, a senior member of the Peterson International Institute of Economics, said, “If we compare where we are in April, most of the tariffs he explained, and the letters he sent are very similar to what he describes,” he said. “I think what this shows was the blush about ‘we will negotiate all these trade agreements’ in April.”

Assuming the stock markets, like the end of the 90 -day pause, assuming that this last date will shift, Trump’s latest threat rush was widely shrugged. After dived after the Day of Independence, the S&P 500 leading stock index broke a record record – but the renewed hostility with Canada provoked a wobble on Friday.

Obstfeld notes that the bond markets seem less optimistic, and the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates four times in the next 12 months. “Bond markets are priced in all these interest rates based on slowdown in the economy and slowing down inflation. If you believe, it is difficult to see that the economy will slow down, that the stock market behaves as it is caused. “He must give something at some point.”

The dollar also confused the expectations of economists who suffered in the first half of the first half in 50 years, although the tariffs were a stronger currency.

In addition to Hitin to the currency, there is insufficient evidence of a significant impact on the US economy, but job data comes well above expectations last week.

However, experts believe that it may not continue. Oxford Economics Global Macro Research Director Ben May said, ık We have seen a lot of durability in data so far, but I think many of them are dependent on the front loading – as a result people trying to avoid tariffs, ”he says. “Now we are at the point where it will fade. This weakness does not mean that we have not yet seen it.”

Consultancy Capital Economics, the global economist Neil Shearing, argues that the full impact of tariffs is silenced by the US agreement with China, and that a handful of other agreements on major economies will be included.

“We don’t know where the tariffs will go down, but more importantly, from the US point of view, an agreement was made with England, China, Vietnam, which covers more than 75% of Mexico and the EU and later US trade.” In this case, it describes its influence on the US as “a light stagflation shock – – pushing inflation over the 3% target of the Federal Reserve and putting brakes to grow.

Jerome Powell, the president of the Federal Reserve, has been repeatedly attacked by Trump because it did not reduce the rates faster, and it was clearly said that the tariffs will be accused of recently. “Essentially, all inflation forecasts for the United States rose financially as a result of tariffs. We did not excessively react, in fact, we did not react at all. We are just taking some time,” he said.

Even if the average tariff rate for most countries is between 10% and 20% – much lower than the rate of liberation – it points to a historical change for the global trade system.

“Looking at the US perspective, this is still an increase in tariffs, Belir he says. “It will take the effective tariff rate to a place between 2.5%and 15%. It takes you back to the latest tariff rates in the 1940s.”

Estimates, including the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England in the UK, have repeatedly emphasized the costs of the economy of uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs – firms leave without the information they need to make investment decisions.

Although Trump’s latest letter and description does not answer the question of where the tariffs will finally descend, it clarified something – it is very likely that this uncertainty will continue for a long time.

And in the meantime, there is little evidence that the policy has achieved the purpose of bringing the President’s production work to the United States. “We are not likely to see a production Renaissance in the near future because of tariffs, Ob says Obstfeld. “It’s hard to see how this goal has been achieved.”