Coalition marks worst-ever Newspoll result: Primary vote just 27%
COALITION SLUMPS TO ALL-TIME LOW
The Coalition is starting the week as it ended the last — in the complete doldrums.
The latest Newspoll has generated plenty of coverage overnight as it shows the opposition recording its worst primary vote in Newspoll history.
The Australian reports the latest survey, conducted between Monday and Thursday last week, shows the Coalition’s primary vote at 27% — an all-time low. It adds that Labor’s two-party-preferred lead now stands at 58-42, its largest lead since Anthony Albanese became prime minister.
Meanwhile, Coalition leader Sussan Ley’s approval rating sits at minus 17, with Albanese holding a significant lead as preferred prime minister.
The AAP and The Australian point out the obvious: that the poll results come after a disastrous week for Ley and her Coalition following the inevitable demotion of Jacinta Nampijinpa Price to the backbench.
According to the AAP, the sacking “exposed bitter divisions over migration, climate change and net-zero policy”, but I think we were all well aware of them before last week (mainly because Coalition figures kept coming out and talking about them).
The newswire states that Ley has “sought to reassert control” over her party by unveiling a reshuffled frontbench, with conservatives Claire Chandler and Simon Kennedy promoted, and James Paterson rejoining her leadership group.
The ABC reports West Australian MP Melissa Price will replace Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as the shadow minister for defence industry and personnel, while Chandler will take on the science and cybersecurity portfolios. Sky News adds: “The reshuffle also brings Cook MP Simon Kennedy into the shadow executive in the newly created position of shadow assistant minister for artificial intelligence. Mr Kennedy will also serve as shadow assistant minister for the digital economy and shadow assistant minister for scrutiny of government waste.”
The latest Newspoll also shows One Nation’s primary vote rose from 6.4% at the May 3 election to 10% now. The Greens rose to 13% and others, including minor parties and independents, were up to 14%, The Australian adds.
On that theme, the Nine papers report the latest Resolve Political Monitor shows “support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has surged to a record high of 12% after weeks of rancorous debate about immigration as the Coalition plumbs the depths of political unpopularity”.
Resolve pollster Jim Reed is quoted as saying: “The immigration debate is undoubtedly responsible for boosting One Nation’s vote. If you’re unhappy with the major parties on the environment, you go to the Greens, and if you’re unhappy about immigration, you go to Pauline.”
He added: “We don’t know yet if this is a short-term blip by way of a protest, or a long-term trend. The rise of the Greens has taken Labor’s primary vote, but gives back on preferences. We might be seeing the same thing starting to happen on the Coalition’s right flank.”
2035 TARGET AND UN TRIP LOOM
The Nine papers highlight in the above piece what a big week this is expected to be for the Albanese government, with the anticipation of a 2035 emissions reduction target in the coming days and the prime minister off to New York at the weekend for the UN General Assembly.
At the UN next week, Albanese is obviously hoping to get his much sought-after meeting with US President Donald Trump, where the future of AUKUS, defence spending, tariffs and all that fun stuff could be discussed.
In preparation, the government announced on Sunday it will be investing $12 billion in upgrades to the Henderson submarine base in Western Australia, Sky News reports. Guardian Australia calls it a “down payment” on a shipbuilding facility, adding: “The Henderson defence precinct will cost $25 billion over a decade and will be used to build surface vessels and to dock and sustain submarines, including those to be delivered under the AUKUS agreement.”
Much has been made over the weekend of a report in The Washington Post that said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had privately reassured “a top Australian official” that the AUKUS deal, which is reportedly still under review by the Pentagon, wouldn’t be terminated.
“Rubio, who is also national security adviser, told Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles in Washington that the submarine partnership would continue, according to the people familiar with the conversation,” the American paper reported.
Marles did the media rounds yesterday and told Sky News the money pledged to the Henderson base was not made to appease the US, but because it was a “really important decision”.
“I think the announcement [shows] that Henderson is a key piece of the AUKUS story, and from that point of view, it will be welcomed in the US,” he said.
The AAP flags opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor said the funding announcement was overdue and didn’t go far enough to support the rotation of American and British submarines until late into the 2030s.
The Australian reports Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also declared on Sunday, when asked if the announcement was a message to the Trump administration: “Australia has always pulled our weight. We pay our way and we contribute to our alliance each and every day.”
Australia’s ambassador in Washington — a certain Kevin Rudd — is no doubt hoping Albanese and Trump do indeed meet up in New York in a few days’ time, after all the endless coverage over the leaders not having their face-to-face (if anything just to stop him being asked what he does in his job).
The Australian Parliament’s website informs me the former prime minister will celebrate his birthday the day before the UN General Assembly begins. Surely the erratic American president wouldn’t snub the ambassador and his boss on his birthday week…
Back in serious news, Albanese is travelling to Port Moresby today to attend Papua New Guinea’s Golden Jubilee celebrations and finalise a significant defence agreement, AAP reports.
“What we’ll be saying in the next few days is a genuinely historic agreement between our two countries,” Marles said in advance of the details being revealed.
Correction: This section erroneously quoted a statement from Ley in May, not September. It has been removed.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
Residents of a care home in Canada are on hand to share their decades’ worth of wisdom; you’ve just got to give them a call.
The Washington Post reports a new project by the Misericordia Place care home allows members of the public to ring up and hear pre-recorded messages from residents on a variety of topics.
After calling the phone number you are presented with a series of options, which the newspaper says include “Press 1 for Carl’s advice on following your dreams. Press 3 for Randy’s wisdom on how to grow in new ways (he joined some clubs and got a girlfriend)… Press 0 for Cheryl’s tips on being true to yourself (‘it’s you who has to live with yourself later).”
Elaine Clifton, 80, who recently celebrated her 57th wedding anniversary, offers advice on falling and staying in love in her pre-recorded message. “Just treat each other with respect and kindness,” she says. “Once you’ve fallen in love, don’t look around everywhere for anybody else because you’ve found the right one.”
Natalie Baird, one of the facility’s artists-in-residence who helped come up with the project, said of what had been recorded, “Overwhelmingly, a lot of people, their advice was really to be part of your community and to find out how you can help.”
Say What?
Britain is a nation proudly built on tolerance, diversity and respect. Our flag represents our diverse country and we will never surrender it to those that use it as a symbol of violence, fear and division.
Sir Keir Starmer
The UK prime minister after over 150,000 people took to the streets of London on Saturday for a “Unite the Kingdom” march organised by far-right activist Tommy Robinson. The BBC reports that 26 police officers were injured on the day. Starmer also said in his statement: “People have a right to peaceful protest. It is core to our country’s values. But we will not stand for assaults on police officers doing their job or for people feeling intimidated on our streets because of their background or the colour of their skin.”
CRIKEY RECAP
A series of probably unrelated events involving Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin
September 11: The ABC puts out an edition of its regular podcast The Party Room, titled “Is Sussan Ley’s leadership in trouble?“. Host Patricia Karvelas notes: “Price is also known to be quite close to Tony Abbott. Tony Abbott has spruiked and pumped up her tyres for quite some time. In the moderate wing of the Liberal Party … they believe Tony Abbott is behind a lot of these ideas”, and behind the push to “oppose immigration with a harsher tone”.
September 12: Speculation about Ley’s future as leader continues. The Australian runs a news piece claiming conservatives are “casting doubt over whether [Ley] will last until the election”.
If America descends into fascism, does Australia just grin and bear it?
That the US becomes a fascist autocracy is now a significant possibility — some argue it already has. History shows that such regimes are very difficult to remove without some external event like losing a war. Are Australian policymakers grappling with what this means for our security? Can Australia be a loyal ally of a fascist autocracy? We’ve been content to ally ourselves with the US despite many repugnant features of its polity — its murderous gun obsession; its enthusiasm for invasion and mass murder in other countries — so perhaps the answer is that, yes, we will be. Let Trump trash US democracy and basic human rights, as long as he flogs us those subs.
But there’s a more pragmatic calculation: if we need a fascist autocracy in the United States to protect us from a nationalist autocracy in China, perhaps we’d be better off with the more stable and economically prosperous of those two. As Don Farrell’s comment reminds us, the US is no longer of any economic benefit to Australia, in direct contrast to China, which has been the guarantor of Australian prosperity for two decades. Is anyone in the government putting their mind to this?
Here’s to Lachlan Murdoch, winner of Succession IRL
After a two-year battle, the Murdoch family has settled the biggest question about its future: who gets control of daddy’s media empire. Three of Rupert Murdoch’s adult children, Prudence, James and Elisabeth, have agreed to get out of the game, selling their shares in the family trust for US$3.3 billion. Favoured son Lachlan will buy them out and maintain the legacy of staunch conservatism in News Corp and Fox, just as Rupert planned.
Crystal Andrews is joined by Crikey founder Stephen Mayne to unpack who gets what in the deal, and what Lachlan plans to do with the media empire. But the feuding is far from over. If a disgruntled James Murdoch wanted to mess with his estranged father and brother, what are his options now? Mayne has some ideas.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Dezi Freeman search at Porepunkah now Australia’s largest tactical police deployment (ABC)
Kirk suspect ‘not cooperating’ with authorities, governor says (BBC)
FBI’s Patel faces US congressional hearings after Kirk death probe missteps (Al Jazeera)
Ricky Hatton dies aged 46: British boxing great and former world champion dies (Sky Sports)
Can Keir survive? Inside the plot to bring down the prime minister (The Guardian)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Liberals trapped in a web of despair, as primary vote plummets — Geoff Chambers (The Australian): The Liberal Party is stuck in a web of despair and chaos that could take multiple election cycles to escape.
After two disastrous election defeats that virtually wiped the Liberals from capital city electoral maps, radical ideas are being floated privately by leading conservative figures on finding a way back to power.
While some believe patience is required because electoral success is cyclical and voters will naturally flock back to the Liberal Party, others are contemplating nuclear options where new conservative parties are created.
The federal press gallery is ceding power to the Albanese government — Gareth Hutchens (ABC): The gallery has the power to kill the culture of strings-attached drops in Parliament House. If every news outlet in the hallway believed it was in their collective interest to do so, and they acted as one, they could kill the practice tomorrow.
But who expects that to happen?
The temptation for one news outlet to break away from any gallery pact, to get the “scoop” on their rivals with a juicy drop that kicked off the next major news cycle, would be too great.
And once that happened once, other outlets would go back to receiving strings-attached drops again.
